Thursday MLB Props & PrizePicks Plays: Corbin Burnes & Framber Valdez Project Well on Opening Day (April 7)
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Framber Valdez
- Opening Day of the MLB season means it's time to find some value on PrizePicks.
- There are a plethora of options on this seven-game slate, and our analyst has five recommendations for your card.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the slate and top PrizePicks plays.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on today’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s slate in Major League Baseball.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Thursday, April 7th
Corbin Burnes Over 7.5 Strikeouts
The first game of the season is an NL Central battle as the Milwaukee Brewers travel to Chicago to take on the Cubs. Last year’s NL Cy Young winner gets the Opening Day start for the Brewers and will look to build upon last season’s success.
Last season, Burnes came out of the gate strong as he went over this total in each of his first seven starts. Burnes went over this total in all three of his starts against Chicago last season.
Corbin is a right-hander, and Chicago ranked dead-last in baseball last season in strikeouts against right-handed pitchers.
Kolten Wong Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6
Wong is projected to hit in the leadoff spot for Milwaukee against Chicago, which means he will get more opportunities to go over this number. The Brewers will be going against right-hander Kyle Hendricks, a pitcher who Wong has had success against.
In 52 career plate appearances against Hendricks, Wong boasts a .362 AVG and .427 wOBA. Wong is a very good hitter regardless of facing lefties/righties, as his splits are almost identical against each.
Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Strikeouts
We have an Opening Day AL West matchup as the Houston Astros travel to Anaheim to take on the Angels. Framber Valdez gets the Opening Day nod for Houston and will look to build upon the great form in which he ended last season.
Valdez went over this total in nine of his last 11 starts of the 2021 campaign. In his two starts against the Angels last season, Valdez went over this total in both.
Kyle Tucker Hitter Fantasy Score Over 5.5
Two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani is someone who Kyle Tucker has had success against. In his six career plate appearances against Ohtani, Tucker has hit a homer and possesses a .400 AVG and .596 wOBA.
Tucker fared well against right-handers last season as he posted a .920 OPS, .299 AVG and .375 OBP. Projected to hit second in the batting order between Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, Tucker should get plenty of chances to rack up fantasy points.
David Peralta Hitter Fantasy Score Over 5.5
We have an NL West showdown to end the night as the Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres. Right-hander Yu Darvish is the starting pitcher for the Padres and is someone who Peralta has had success against in his career.
Over 17 career plate appearances against Darvish, Peralta has three homers and boasts a .409 AVG and .522 wOBA. Peralta’s power comes into play against righties as his slugging percentage jumps to .443 against right-handers since 2019, as opposed to his .384 slugging percentage against left-handers over that stretch.