Tigers vs Yankees Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Thursday, September 7
Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jasson Dominguez
Tigers vs. Yankees Odds
The Yankees continue to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, winning their eighth game in nine tries on Wednesday night against the Tigers.
Now, they'll send Carlos Rodon to the hill as they aim for a second series victory over Detroit in as many weeks.
Let's break down how to bet Yankees vs. Tigers in our preview and prediction.
The Tigers had built up a little momentum after dropping three in a row to the Yankees last week, taking their next four, but their luck has once again run out on account of the Bombers. They've scored just four runs through two games in this series, and over the last two weeks they own a poor 79 wRC+ with a sky-high 28.2% strikeout rate.
The good news for Detroit is they still have Eduardo Rodriguez, at least for now. The left-hander has posted a splendid 3.11 ERA and 3.73 xERA through 124 1/3 innings, striking out batters at an above-average clip of 24.4%.
The one knock on Rodriguez would probably be his lack of ground balls. That's led to a very average .242 xBA, which makes sense considering he's also around the league average in hard-hit rate. It's not as if he's been brilliant at pitching to contact, but the strikeouts coupled with a low walk rate have really done E-Rod well here.
We have seen some regression hit Rodriguez in recent months, and it's largely due to the fact that his changeup carries with it a .283 xBA and his cutter a .238 xBA. Both of those pitches had been generating outs, but the results have started to catch the expected results.
Speaking of expected results, one might look at Carlos Rodon's profile and think they know all there is to know about the left-hander. He has a 5.15 xERA with a high 9.8% barrel rate and 11.4% walk rate, which is a recipe for disaster. His strikeout rate is also down from 33.4% a season ago to 20% here in 2023.
Well, I think we should all relax a little bit. Rodon was one of the five most dominant arms in the National League a season ago, and in a season marred by injuries he has made just nine starts.
It would seem after a rocky start that Rodon's settled in, posting an xBA under .200 in four of his last five starts. His walk rate has steadily dropped over the past five starts, and while the strikeouts haven't improved markedly like the rest of these numbers he's still in a better place than he was in July. He just struck out a season-high seven hitters against Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago.
Just to touch on the Yankees' offense briefly, they've been worlds better since calling up Jasson Dominguez and Austin Wells. While Oswald Peraza has fallen flat on his face at this level and Anthony Volpe's rookie season has been a bit of an adventure, Dominguez has proven he can consistently get on base and hit for power, slugging his third home run in just five games on Wednesday.
All in all, this team has a 107 wRC+ over the last two weeks, which is a massive step in the right direction.
Tigers vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Yankees have been one of the best offenses in baseball this season against lefties, ranking seventh in wRC+ with a solid-enough 22.6% strikeout rate, while the Tigers have ranked 27th in the split with a weak .148 ISO.
While he's struggled in these areas for most of his season, I feel very confident that Rodon can keep the ball in the yard here and keep runners off base given Detroit's poor performance in the power and walk departments. On top of that, he's really made some significant strides in his last five starts and seems to be working his way back into form.
On the other hand, I think a great fastball-hitting team like the Yankees will do some damage against a familiar face here in Rodriguez, who has begun to regress in the last two months.
New York still has something to play for here, and with its recent run at the plate I think it should do damage against a team that it has owned over the last couple of weeks.
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