The Chicago White Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 7, 2025. First pitch from Rate Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Blue Jays swept the Angels over the weekend and will have Jose Berrios to start tonight. On the flip side, Sean Burke will toe the rubber for the White Sox.
Find my MLB betting preview and Blue Jays vs White Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Blue Jays vs White Sox Prediction
- Blue Jays vs White Sox pick: Under 8.5 (-105, BetMGM)
My Blue Jays vs White Sox best bet is the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs White Sox Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -200 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +165 |
Blue Jays vs White Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jose Berrios (TOR) | Stat | RHP Sean Burke (CHW) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | W-L | 4-7 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.64 / 4.75 | ERA / xERA | 4.03 / 5.13 |
| 4.10 / 4.16 | FIP / xFIP | 4.83 / 4.94 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.40 |
| 12.6 | K-BB% | 9.2 |
| 38.4 | GB% | 33.5 |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 101 | Location+ | 101 |
Blue Jays vs White Sox Preview
The Blue Jays are on a roll after winning eight straight games. In five of those eight, however, they scored five or fewer runs, so they've been relying on their pitching staff more than anything.
Jose Berrios will take the ball tonight. Berrios has been great in his previous seven starts, with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, and that's counting a terrible start against the Yankees in his last outing. In June, he had a 1.97 ERA and has pitched four games with one or no runs allowed since last month.
He'll face a White Sox offense that ranks 28th overall with a 80 wRC+ and is last in average (.222). Chicago does even worse against right-handed pitchers: 79 wRC+ (29th) and an average of .218 (last).
The Blue Jays' lineup also performs worse versus righties. They rank 10th in the majors with 106 wRC+ but fall to the 13th spot when facing right-handers like Chicago's Sean Burke, who has a 3.23 ERA over his last seven starts.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for the under, adding a weather angle with the Public Fades Humidity = Unders system.
Blue Jays vs White Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity — ranging from 45 to 95 — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has also subtly corrected, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest, ranging from 6% to 29%.
These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105, BetMGM)
