We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough that I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
So far this season, I'm 61-42 betting on Triple-A baseball, good for 37.3 units of profit.
Let's close the Minor League season strong.
Memphis Redbirds @ Durham Bulls
Tuesday, 6:45 PM ET
The Cardinals simply have to be manipulating service time with Joshua Baez because there’s no other good reason he hasn’t been called up by St. Louis at this point. The Cards have had a brutal time at the plate over the past month, so you’d think a guy with 33 homers at the Triple-A level could help.
I think that call comes at some point this week, which means Memphis will eventually lose its best player — the one holding the Redbird lineup together.
Memphis won the first-half title behind a loaded roster, but the Redbirds are just 16-23 in the second half as the bats have cooled off. I expect that mark to regress further once Baez is gone.
On the other hand, Durham has drastically improved in the second half, leading the International League at 24-14.
The Bulls have plenty of pitching depth, and the addition of Jack Suwinski has made a big impact on a formerly ineffective lineup.
The books haven’t caught up yet. Durham still has a 52-61 overall record, so the Bulls are being priced as a bottom-tier team and will likely be underdogs all week in this series.
I disagree with that assessment. I’ll likely make the Bulls favorites in most games this series, especially if Baez heads up to St. Louis.
Pick: Durham Bulls ML (+105, bet365) | Durham Bulls +1.5 (-145, bet365)
Syracuse Mets @@ Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Tuesday, 7:05 PM ET
I’m not sure there’s much room for youth contributors in Miami at the moment, so Jacksonville should have a loaded squad until the rosters expand.
The Marlins made some deadline moves to bolster their “next-up” player pool with guys like Jonathan Long and Jace Beck coming over from the Cubs. Cam Cannarella and Brayden Taylor were recently called up from the Double-A level, while Deyvison De Los Santos continues to crush Triple-A pitching despite struggling at the MLB level. Kemp Alderman hasn’t been consistent enough at Triple-A to earn a call-up yet.
Ultimately, there’s a real possibility that Jacksonville deploys a lineup with Cannarella, Taylor, Long, De Los Santos, and Alderman this week. From an upside standpoint, that’s as good as it gets at the Triple-A level.
The Shrimp have always had a great pitching staff — expect me to be on them in the Brandon White and Jace Beck starts — but they’ve been held back by the lineup. I don’t expect that to be the case anymore.
This Syracuse roster is average at best and has been all season. Jacksonville should be favored by more.
Pick: Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp ML (-125, bet365)
Salt Lake Bees @ El Paso Chihuahuas
Tuesday, 8:35 PM ET
Salt Lake has pieced together a very good lineup, but the Bees have been playing really good competition lately.
The Bees hit the road again to El Paso, but they get to play the lowly Chihuahuas. Salt Lake won’t be the lesser team in this series.
Neither team has any pitching at the moment, so I’ll be looking for spots where Salt Lake has its preferred lineup against a relatively poor El Paso startign pitcher.
The Angels have nothing to play for at the moment, so Yusei Kikuchi might get another rehab start this week for the Bees, which would really bolster the pitching staff.
It’s worth mentioning that I believe Salt Lake has the better leverage relievers, which matters if these games go off the rails and turn into double-digit slugfests — which can happen in the El Paso altitude.
The Salt Lake lineup I’m hoping for has Nelson Rada, Christian Moore, Raudi Rodriguez, Cade Marlowe and Niko Kavadas all in it.
Pick: Salt Lake Bees ML (-120, bet365) | Over 13.5 (-115, bet365)
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Durham Bulls ML (+105, bet365)
- Durham Bulls +1.5 (-145, bet365)
- Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp ML (-125, bet365)
- Salt Lake Bees ML (-120, bet365)
- Salt Lake Bees @ El Paso Chihuahuas Over 13.5 (bet365)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A Baseball
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
