Tuesday MLB Props Odds, Picks & Predictions: 2 Bets for Keegan Thompson and Corey Seager (Tuesday, August 2)
Tim Heitman/Getty Images. Pictured: Corey Seager
- It's a full slate of baseball action tonight, and there are two props in particular that have value.
- Keegan Thompson takes the mound for the Cubs against the Cardinals, while Corey Seager will take his hacks against Jordan Lyles and the Orioles.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the props market from tonight's MLB slate.
It’s MLB Trade Deadline Day, and while there will be a flurry of activity leading up to the 6 p.m. ET deadline, there’s still games to be played and action to be had.
Among today’s loaded slate, there are two props I found that have solid value — one hitter and one pitcher.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
|Orioles @ Rangers|
|First Pitch||8:05 p.m. ET|
Corey Seager has been on a tear for the Rangers as of late and he gets a favorable match up at home against Orioles starter Jordan Lyles.
Over the past two months, Lyles has given up a .776 SLG to left-handed hitters on the road, and his overall road numbers are very fade-able. This season, Lyles has given up a .333 batting average against and a .743 SLG to left-handed hitters on the road, and Seager has been hot since the All-Star Break.
Seager has kept up his steady play since the start of July and he’s hitting .367 with a .467 ISO at home against RHP over the past month.
Seager should get at least two shots at Lyles before he faces an Orioles bullpen that is good, but Seager’s reverse home splits against LHP mean he should have a good chance at eclipsing 1.5 total bases on Tuesday night.
Pick: Corey Seager over 1.5 TB
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Keegan Thompson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155)
|Cubs @ Cardinals|
|First Pitch||7:45 p.m. ET|
Keegan Thompson gets the ball for the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday night and he will have the task of taking on one of the toughest teams to strike out in the league.
The St. Louis Cardinals are 29th in K% against RHP at home this season and Thompson is only averaging 7.34 K/9 on the road this season. The Cards’ ability to make contact and Thompson’s contact-oriented approach don’t look to make for a lot of K’s.
Action Labs projects Thompson for 5.1 K’s today, but while it’s rare that we go against those amazing projections, there are a few things working against Thompson tonight.
Thompson has only struck out five or more on the road twice this season and he’s only struck out five or more batters in six of his 13 starts overall. Additionally, Thompson only struck out three Cards in his last start against them at Wrigley.
While -155 is considerable juice to pay, it’s justified by Thompson’s pitch-to-contact approach and the Cardinals’ propensity to avoid the strikeouts.
Considering Thompson’s style of pitching and the Cards style of hitting, look for a lot of balls in play today off Thompson.
Pick: Under 4.5