MLB Prop Bets & PrizePicks Plays: 5 Picks, Featuring the Pirates, Marlins and Dallas Keuchel (Tuesday, July 12)
Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Dallas Keuchel
- Four hitters and one pitcher are in the spotlight with PrizePicks value tonight.
- Our analyst is targeting some offensive struggles in tonight's Pirates-Marlins game, while buying an otherwise fadeable pitcher in Giants-Diamondbacks.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the top PrizePicks plays from tonight's MLB slate.
Tuesday’s MLB slate features 16 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Tuesday, July 12
Garrett Cooper Under 1.5 Hits + Walks
I am fading a couple of Miami hitters in this game as they are slated to go against Pirates right-hander Chris Stratton.
While Stratton is a relief pitcher, he is slated to open the game for Pittsburgh and will probably just go a few innings. Nonetheless, Stratton has been a good reliever recently and should be able to continue his strong play to start this game.
Over his last 8 1/3 innings, Stratton has allowed just three runs on 10 hits. While the 10 hits is a lot, five of those were in one poor outing against the Nationals which also accounted for two of those three earned runs.
Stratton could also go a little longer than expected in this outing if he has a good start, which is entirely possible based on how Garrett Cooper and the rest of this Marlins lineup has been hitting at the plate recently. Over his last 12 games, Cooper has gone under this total eight times (75%).
When facing right-handed pitchers over the last three seasons, Cooper’s numbers take about a 10% dip. Cooper is 0-for-11 in his one career plate appearance against Stratton.
Jon Berti Hitter Fantasy Score Under 8.5
The other Marlins hitter I am fading in this game is Jon Berti. Over his last 12 games, Berti has gone under this total eight times (75%).
When facing right-handed pitchers this season, Berti’s numbers take about a 25% dip as he possesses a mere .257 BA, .352 OBP and .343 SLG. Berti’s numbers also take a big dip on the road as he possesses a .232 BA, .341 OBP and .295 SLG when playing away from home.
Berti is 0-for-2 through his two career plate appearances against Stratton.
Kevin Newman Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5.5
I am also fading a few Pittsburgh hitters in this game as they are slated to go against left-hander Daniel Castano. Through eight pitching appearances this season, Castano is 1-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.
The first hitter we are fading is Kevin Newman, who has now gone under this fantasy total in seven of his last 12 games (58%). I also expect to see some regression from Newman, who has hit left-handers at an extremely high level over his last two games as he is 3-for-6 with a double and two singles.
However, over his last three seasons against left-handers, Newman possesses a mere .238 BA, .286 OBP and .328 SLG. Additionally, Newman has never faced Castano in his career and It could take a few trips to the plate to figure him out.
Michael Chavis Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5.5
The other Pirates batter that I am fading in this game is Michael Chavis. Like Castano, Chavis has never faced Castano and could take a few trips to get comfortable against him at the plate.
Over his last 12 games, Chavis has gone under this total nine times (75%). Since 2010, Chavis has struggled against left-handers as he possesses a mere .263 BA, .294 OBP and .495 SLG.
Dallas Keuchel Over 3 Strikeouts
Happy Dallas Keuchel Day, where those who fade the pitcher usually profit as he has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB this season. Through 11 starts, Keuchel is 2-6 with a 7.63 ERA and 1.94 WHIP.
If Keuchel is so bad, then why are we backing his strikeout prop? Well, even if he goes out and gives up four or more earned runs once again, he will still collect outs.
Keuchel has gone at least four innings in eight of his last nine outings, which means he has recorded at least 12 outs in those eight games. While he usually gives up some hits and runs between each out, when he does get people back to the dugout It is usually via the strikeout.
Over those eight outings, Keuchel has reached at least three strikeouts in six of them (75%). I believe this will be the case once again tonight, as the Giants rank just 27th in the league in K% since June 1st.
We are getting a generous number here because of Keuchel’s reputation. But even if he gets lit up once again, I think he can retire at least three batters via the strikeout.