Tuesday MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: Buying Corbin Burnes, Brewers vs. Pirates (April 19)
Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty. Pictured: Corbin Burnes.
Editor’s Note: Tuesday’s game between the White Sox and Guardians has been postponed because of inclement weather. It will be made up as part of a doubleheader Wednesday.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on today’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s slate in Major League Baseball.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Tuesday, April 19th
Luis Robert Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6.5
In the first game of this AL Central series, the Chicago White Sox hit the road to take on the Cleveland Guardians. Luis Robert has gotten off to a tough start this season as he possesses a .194 BA, .216 OBP and .389 SLG. He has particularly struggled against right-handed pitchers so far this season as he possesses a .154 BA, .185 OBP and .269 SLG.
Chicago is slated to go against right-handed starting pitcher Shane Bieber in what should be a bad matchup for Robert. Over his 12 career plate appearances against Bieber, Robert is just 1-for-12 with five strikeouts and zero walks.
Robert has gone under this fantasy score total in three of his last four games and is in a tough spot for his fortunes to reverse in this game.
Jose Abreu Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5.5
Another White Sox hitter I am fading in this contest is Jose Abreu, who has also gotten off to a tough start this season. Thus far, Abreu possesses a .212 BA, .297 OBP and .364 SLG.
Like Robert, Abreu has not been anything special against Bieber in his career as he possesses a .240 xBA and .337 xwOBA. Additionally, Abreu has gone under this total in four of his last six games.
Dallas Keuchel Pitcher Fantasy Score Under 20.5
The last fade I am making of the White Sox in this game is on the mound as Dallas Keuchel should struggle in this matchup. Keuchel allowed three runs on six hits through five innings pitched against the Mariners in his season debut and could be in deeper waters for this matchup.
On the road last season, Keuchel was awful as he posted a 5.75 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Cleveland absolutely ripped Keuchel last season as well with Keuchel producing a 6.61 ERA and 1.163 WHIP over his three losses against them.
In 79 career plate appearances against Keuchel, this current Guardians roster boasts a .284 xBA, .460 xSLG and .343 xwOBA.
Corbin Burnes Pitcher Fantasy Score Over 35.5
We have the second matchup of the three-game set between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Pittsburgh Pirates in this NL Central series. After a very poor first outing this season, Burnes appeared to look like himself again in his second outing as he dominated the Baltimore Orioles.
Burnes cruised over this fantasy score total in that outing as he allowed zero runs on just three hits through seven innings, racking up eight strikeouts along the way. Going against the lowly Pirates, Burnes has a great opportunity to have another strong outing.
Though a small sample size, this Pirates lineup has struggled against Corbin Burnes. In 39 career plate appearances against Burnes, this current roster possesses a mere .189 BA, .297 SLG and .231 wOBA.
Willy Adames Over 1.5 Hits + Walks
I am also backing the Brewers lineup to have a good outing against projected starting pitcher J.T. Brubaker, who has been awful to start the season. Through two pitching appearances thus far, Brubaker possesses a 9.82 ERA and 2.18 WHIP.
Adames has only faced Brubaker three times in his career, however, he is 2-for-2 with a home run and a walk over those three plate appearances. So far this season, Adames boasts a .264 xBA, .446 xSLG and .357 xwOBA.
Adames has gone over this 1.5 total in each of his last two games and should be able to keep it going against the struggling Brubaker.
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