Twins vs Guardians Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Tuesday, September 5

After a surprising set of waiver claims for Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, and Reynaldo López, the Cleveland Guardians face their most important challenge of the season: taking down the Minnesota Twins to put themselves back in the race for the American League Central title. Cleveland will throw Tanner Bibee against Sonny Gray of the Twins. Bibee has been a solid piece in the Cleveland rotation this year and will remain a fixture in the rotation for years to come.

Gray is one of the remaining long-shot Cy Young candidates with about a month left of regular-season play. He has helped keep this Minnesota team atop the AL Central.

Since both teams are throwing reliable starters in this matchup and neither team has enough pieces against right-handed pitching to push across a ton of runs, the under should be in play from the onset of the ballgame.

Gray has been spectacular this season at age 33. His Pitching Run Value ranks in the 100^th percentile. His xERA is 3.71 against a 2.92 ERA, so there could be a little negative regression, but both numbers are great. His Average Exit Velocity is 89.3 mph with a Barrel Rate at 6.5% and a Hard-Hit Rate of 39.6%. He has a 48.6% Groundball Rate, while the Guardians have the sixth-highest Groundball Rate in MLB. This should play into Gray’s hands.

The Twins have some solid collective numbers against right-handed pitching. They have a 115 wRC+ with a 12.3% walk rate, 27.8% strikeout rate, and .768 OPS in the last two weeks. That said, in that time frame, they only have four batters above a .290 xwOBA. Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler have been doing the heavy lifting with .400+ xwOBA marks, but otherwise, the bottom of this lineup has been porous when called upon.

In relief, Minnesota has been streaky. They have a 5.14 xFIP in the last two weeks, so this is one of their cold streaks. Kody Funderburk and Jhoan Duran have sub-4.00 xFIPs, so these may be the options once Gray exits the game. Gray has gone at least six innings in each start since the middle of July, so this should reduce the strain on the bullpen.

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Bibee has been an underrated pitcher in the AL Central this season. He has a Pitching Run Value in the 92^nd percentile of the big leagues with a 3.03 ERA against a 3.63 xERA. His Barrel Rate is 6.1% with an Average Exit Velocity of 89 mph and a Hard-Hit Rate of 37.2%. He has a 2.62 ERA over 54 2/3 innings pitched in the second half, so has been phenomenal lately.

The Guardians have been terrible at hitting the ball in the last two weeks, particularly when there is a righty on the mound. They have a 78 wRC+ and .662 OPS with a 23.5% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate. Over three starts this season, Gray has limited the Guardians to six earned runs over 18 2/3 innings, including his most recent start on Aug. 30. Cleveland has six bats with a .300+ xwOBA but only three over .320 against righties in the last two weeks. This should not be enough to score often with Gray facing them.

Cleveland has the better of the two relief staffs with a 4.52 xFIP in the last two weeks. They have six relievers under the 4.00 mark, however, so this is more than enough with Bibee starting the game.

Both of these teams have enough pitching to get through an incredibly important start for AL Central stakes. The under should be in play with two of the best starters on either squad going with enough artillery in relief to back up each. Neither team has enough offensive firepower to score often, so runs should be at a premium. Take the under in this game from 8.5 (-118), and play it to 8 (-125).