Twins vs Orioles Odds, Prediction | Expert MLB Prop Pick
Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Louie Varland.
Twins vs Orioles Odds
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+114 | 9 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -180 |
| Baltimore Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-135 | 9 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +150 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Twins vs Orioles series opener on Monday, April 15.
Twins vs Orioles odds have the Orioles as -130 favorites on the moneyline. The over/under opened at 8.5 total runs, but has settled at 9 as we close in on first pitch at Camden Yards. Minnesota will hand the ball to right-handed starter Louie Varland, and I'm looking at his prop market for strikeouts for my Twins vs Orioles prediction.
Let's dive into how I am backing Varland as I make a Twins vs Orioles prop pick.
It has been a brutal start to the campaign for Varland, who is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP through two starts. However, that presents us with a good buy-low opportunity on the right-hander against Baltimore.
While Varland may continue to struggle moving forward, the one thing he does well is punch out opposing hitters. Despite his terrible numbers, Varland still ranks in the top half of the league in K%.
That was one of his strengths in 2023 as he ranked in the 62nd percentile in K% and 59th in Chase%. Varland strung together six strikeouts in his last outing against the Dodgers despite allowing six runs on seven hits and three walks in five innings.
That is about as bad of a start as you can make, but he proved he can go over 5.5 strikeouts when pitching poorly.
Varland may be able to take advantage of a vulnerable Baltimore lineup. Entering this matchup, the Orioles rank in the bottom half of the league in BA and OBP.
They have relied heavily on power hitting early in the season, but whenever a team ranks higher in slugging, they typically also rank higher in K%. That is exactly the case for Baltimore, a team that possesses a K% north of 21% this year.
Looking at Baltimore's projected starting lineup, five of its nine hitters possess a K% north of 23% this season. The O's are coming off a three-game set against the Brewers, and all three of Milwaukee's starting pitchers were north of a strikeout per inning.
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Twins vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Orioles boast a powerful lineup, but heavy swings often come with more misses. Additionally, even if they do tee off on Varland, he just proved he can rack up the requisite number of strikeouts even in a bad outing.
Opposing starting pitchers have recorded at least six strikeouts in three of Baltimore's last five games. As long as we get at least five innings from Varland, which he has done in seven of his last 10 starts, then six strikeouts is surely an attainable number.
I would play this line up to +110.
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