Twins vs Tigers Odds Game 1: Moneyline Pick & Prediction (Saturday)

The latest Twins vs Tigers odds for Game 1 of their doubleheader on Saturday have the Twins installed as -125 favorites on the moneyline with an over/under of 8 runs. I'm targeting the moneyline for my Twins vs Tigers prediction.

The Twins have not hit right-handers well to start the 2024 season, but in 2023, that was a different story. On Saturday, they will face Kenta Maeda, who might have age catching up to him a little bit. Maeda has been atrocious this year. In the past, he typically was the recipient of bad luck, but this year, he is getting hit hard and walking batters, with a below-average strikeout rate to boot. This is not the same pitcher from last year and years prior.

Joe Ryan will be on the mound for the Twins, and he has started 2024 with a bang. The righty has been exceptional with walks and strikeouts, despite some hard contact.

The Twins should be heavier favorites with a comparable lineup and better pitching staff, so let's take a look at the best bet to back Minnesota for my Twins vs. Tigers pick.

Editor's Note: This story was written before Carlos Correa was placed on the 10-day injured list (right oblique strain).

Ryan has allowed an Average Exit Velocity of 89.7 mph thus far this season, which is a touch above where he has been in his career. The righty has 12 strikeouts against just one walk across two starts. His chase rate is exceptional and he is inducing more grounders than he has in the past. All of those are positive indicators of a strong 2024 season.

The Twins have a 70 wRC+ off of righties, but that does not encompass the whole story. Only Carlos Correa and Alex Kirilloff boast .300+ xwOBAs off righties, but keep in mind, this Twins team ranked top five in wRC+ with almost a 10% walk rate against righties a season ago. Yes, Royce Lewis is injured, but the additions of Manuel Margot and Carlos Santana could pay dividends. A healthy Byron Buxton is always a plus, too.

In relief, the Twins have excelled. Jhoan Duran will be back eventually, but at the moment, they have one reliever over a 4.00 xFIP, and that is Kody Funderburk at 4.3. No Twins reliever has above a 3.6 ERA. They have been exceptional. Ryan can pitch past the fifth inning, but a strong bullpen is reassuring for Twins backers.

Maeda, on the other hand, has been awful. He has a 9 ERA and 8.07 xERA over his two starts. Keep in mind, the teams he has faced are the Oakland A’s and Chicago White Sox — neither screams offensive powerhouse. Maeda is not necessarily allowing loud contact, but five walks and five strikeouts will not get the job done. He is facing a Twins lineup that strikes out often and talks plenty of walks, so if he is not manufacturing outs via the K, it will be a major issue.

The Tigers have not hit righties well in 2024. They have a 94 wRC+ but are walking at a 9.4% clip. Even still, the bottom half of the lineup is dragging this offense down. They do have six batters at a .330+ xwOBA off of righties, but Ryan is much better than some of the pitchers this team has seen.

The Tigers' relief staff is decent, but the back end is much more impressive. At the moment, everyone has a sub-3.00 ERA, but every reliever except Jason Foley and Tyler Holton has an xFIP above 4.00. This would mean some negative regression is potentially in the cards. The Twins should force Maeda out of the game, especially if he lacks in the strikeout department.

The Tigers do not have an edge in any area of this game, except maybe being hotter at the plate than the Twins. However, the Twins get Maeda, while the Tigers get Ryan. Ryan should twirl a decent outing, and the Minnesota relief staff is good.

Take Minnesota on the moneyline all the way to -145.

Pick: Twins ML -126 (Bet to -145)

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