The New York Yankees host the Washington Nationals on August 27, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Nationals vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Nationals vs Yankees Prediction
- Nationals vs Yankees picks: Under 8.5 (-105 | Play to -110)
My Nationals vs Yankees best bet is Under 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Yankees Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +220 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -275 |
Tony Sartori’s Nationals vs Yankees Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
Washington selected right-hander Cade Cavalli with the 22nd overall pick of the 2020 MLB Draft. Making his first real run at the major league level, he is currently the sixth-ranked prospect in the organization and is making his fifth start of the campaign.
Cavalli has performed well through his first four outings, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.82 ERA. His underlying metrics are equally impressive, as Cavalli would, if he qualified, rank in the top half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
However, Cavalli may not receive much run support. This season, the Nationals rank in the bottom half of the league in runs per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
That lack of production at the plate is likely to continue against New York’s Max Fried.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
Although the American League Cy Young race is down to two names, Fried will look to join Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet as a finalist. Through 26 starts this season, the left-hander is 13–5 with a 3.14 ERA.
Like Cavalli, Fried’s analytics are strong. Entering this matchup, he ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
That success is likely to continue against Washington, a team Fried has dominated in recent years. The southpaw is 6–2 with a 2.73 ERA over his past 10 meetings against the Nationals.
Following Fried is a bullpen due for positive regression. Despite some inconsistent results, New York’s relief corps ranks seventh in xFIP.
Nationals vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
This should be a strong pitching matchup. Fried has been dominant and should have no issues with a below-average Washington lineup.
The main concern in taking the under is the Yankees’ lineup, which is one of the best in baseball. That said, Cavalli has been sharp and should do enough to avoid getting shelled.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105 | Play to -110)
Nationals vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Cade Cavalli (WSH) | Stat | LHP Max Fried (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 13-5 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.4 |
| 2.82 / 3.57 | ERA /xERA | 3.14 / 3.67 |
| 3.61 / 3.88 | FIP / xFIP | 3.25 / 3.51 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 1.12 |
| 12.4% | K-BB% | 16.8% |
| 51.4% | GB% | 50.9% |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 91 | Location+ | 102 |
