For my Wednesday MLB player props, I'll be looking into Tomoyuki Sugano (against the Brewers), Hunter Brown (against the Rays), and Gavin Williams (against the Twins). Three starting pitchers, two of whom are primed to rack up strikeouts today.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, May 21.
MLB Player Props for May 21, 2025
- Tomoyuki Sugano Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+120, bet365)
- Hunter Brown Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+145, bet365)
- Gavin Williams Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115, BetRivers)
Orioles vs Brewers Player Props: Back the Solid Sugano
The 35-year-old rookie Tomoyuki Sugano has been solid for the Orioles in the backend of the rotation. His veteran poise and excellent command have allowed him to be effective against major league hitters.
Sugano features a splitter and sweeper as his two primary pitches, and opposing hitters hold averages under .200 against those pitches. Much of the contact against him has been soft, and it's no surprise that his BABIP sits in the 93rd percentile.
Sugano will take the mound against the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon, who have struggled against right-handed pitching.
The Brewers are 24th in BABIP against righties and 20th in hard-hit. Additionally, the Brew Crew holds the fourth-highest groundball rate in the majors.
Only two teams have recorded more than five hits against Sugano, and the Brewers don't profile as the lineup to make it a third. Take the under.
Astros vs Rays Player Props: Great Matchup for Brown
Next, we turn our attention to Hunter Brown of the Houston Astros, who has been dominant through his first nine starts of the year. He enters this outing with a 1.43 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.
Brown has overpowered hitters with his high-velocity four-seamer and sinker. Those two pitches have been tough to square up and even touch in general.
Brown's strikeout rate sits in the 92nd percentile, and he has a great matchup this afternoon to showcase his stuff.
The Tampa Bay Rays certainly have an upside in their lineup, but with all that young talent comes a lot of strikeouts.
The Rays are 26th in strikeout rate against righties and are one of the more aggressive teams in the league.
I expect Brown to thrive against them and am opting for an alternate over, as Brown has racked up at least eight strikeouts in six of his nine starts this season.
Guardians vs Twins Player Props: Williams Has the Stuff
Lastly, we are targeting one of the best young arms in baseball, Gavin Williams.
The Guardians' electric right-hander has had his fits with command, but whether his pitches are in the zone or not, they've been tough to hit.
Williams ranks in the 82nd percentile in whiff rate and the 66th in chase rate. His sweeper has been one of the best pitches in baseball, with a .186 BAA and a 51.7 percent whiff rate.
Williams will utilize his arsenal this afternoon against an aggressive Twins lineup that has been striking out quite a bit lately. Over their last 30 games, they rank 24th in strikeout rate against righties and hold the fifth-lowest walk-to-strikeout rate.
If Williams can consistently get ahead in the count, he has the upside to exceed this total by multiple strikeouts this afternoon.
