White Sox vs Guardians Odds, Expert Pick | MLB Prediction Tuesday
Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images. Pictured: Dylan Cease.
- The Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox continue a three-game AL Central series on Tuesday night at Progressive Field.
- Sox ace Dylan Cease takes on Guardians rookie Logan Allen in a compelling starting pitching matchup.
- Continue reading for a preview of White Sox vs. Guardians.
White Sox vs. Guardians Odds
|White Sox Odds|
The Chicago White Sox seem to be showing some signs of life after sweeping the Kansas City Royals at home and now notching two straight series victories.
On Tuesday, they will face Logan Allen and the Cleveland Guardians for the second time in a week with Dylan Cease going for the South Siders.
Allen has produced strong results for the Guardians, but this should be a game where he comes back to Earth a bit. The White Sox can hit lefties, regardless of how they played in the early goings of the season.
Cease and the bullpen seem to have a rhythm now, but the market is undervaluing the White Sox when Cleveland has played so poorly. The Sox should win this inter-divisional matchup.
Cease has not looked like himself for a few starts. He was a Cy Young contender in 2022 for a reason. At the moment, he ranks in the 19th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the eighth percentile in Hard Hit Rate.
Many of those hard-hit balls came in three straight starts where he gave up 17 earned runs in 14 innings pitched. Since then, he has allowed only three earned runs in 12 and one-third innings, including a game against Cleveland.
Pair this with the Guardians owning last place in Average EV and Hard Hit Rate and he should have a solid outing.
The White Sox have also torched lefties not named Allen this month. They own a 141 wRC+ with an .859 OPS in 88 plate appearances in May. On the season, they are still above average at a 105 wRC+ off of southpaws — this includes some trying games for the team.
In relief, the Sox have also improved dramatically. In May, they rank fifth in xFIP out of the bullpen with a 75.8 LOB percentage. Over the last week, the bullpen holds a 3.53 xFIP, so these numbers have steadily improved.
Reynaldo López, Aaron Bummer, Gregory Santos and Joe Kelly have all improved, meaning they will have arms on the back of Cease’s start.
Allen may have shut down the White Sox lineup the last time out, but he has a 3.04 ERA against a 5.08 xERA. Regression is forthcoming, and much of this is due to consistent hard contact.
His Hard Hit Rate is 45.7% with an Average Exit Velocity of 90 mph. His WHIP has also blossomed in recent starts, so more and more hitters are getting on base. This is usually a recipe for disaster.
With a Sox team that saw him last week, they should be in better shape this time.
Cleveland has not been hitting well at all. Off of righties, the Guardians rank 29th in May at a 66 wRC+ with a 6.8% walk rate. Their OPS hovers around .600 — meaning they are not getting extra base hits when they make good contact, either.
Cease has stabilized, so he is not the ticking time bomb that Allen is.
In relief, the Guardians have not looked as sharp. They have a 3.95 xFIP, but Emmanuel Clase has not been the lockdown closer they had last season. He has a 3.54 ERA against a 3.16 xERA.
His Chase Rate ranks in the 25th percentile while allowing louder contact. In fact, he did not have the best series against the New York Mets this past weekend.
Francisco Lindor wins it against his former team! #walkoffpic.twitter.com/lOoae5zMun
— MLB (@MLB) May 20, 2023
Previously, they ranked amongst the top of the league in 2022. The Guardians still have reliable options compared to most, but since the White Sox have pitched well in relief, this is no longer a clear edge for Cleveland.
White Sox vs. Guardians Betting Pick
Dylan Cease is the better starting pitcher while Logan Allen has thrived off of luck so far.
The White Sox just saw Allen last week, making this a perfect time to get to him. Especially while they are scorching left-handed pitching for the most part.
Take the White Sox at -106 and play them to -135. They should be the front-runners in this matchup, even if it is on the road.
Pick: White Sox ML (-106 | Play to -135)
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