White Sox vs Orioles Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Wednesday, August 30
David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Chicago White Sox pitcher starting pitcher Dylan Cease
White Sox vs. Orioles Odds
The third and final game of this series gets underway Wednesday as the AL East's Baltimore Orioles host the AL Central's Chicago White Sox.
Baltimore looks to conclude a commanding sweep after winning the first two matchups by a combined score of 18-3.
Will the Orioles take care of business once again, or can Chicago end the series on a high note?
Here's a look at the odds and my White Sox vs. Orioles betting pick and prediction.
Right-hander Dylan Cease takes the mound for Chicago and could be a good buy-low candidate. Yes, his surface-level stats are poor with a 4.81 ERA and 1.46 WHIP through 27 starts.
However, his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is looming as he owns a 4.19 xERA and ranks in the 53rd percentile or higher in xBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
Cease is coming off a terrible performance against the Oakland Athletics, a game in which he surrendered eight runs on nine hits.
Let's look at how he has bounced back following poor outings this season. After surrendering seven runs on seven hits in less than two innings of work against the Texas Rangers on Aug. 2, the right-hander followed that up with five shutout innings of one-hit ball while striking out six.
Cease also surrendered seven runs on nine hits through five innings against the Kansas City Royals on May 8. How did he follow that up? With a six-inning shutout performance against the Houston Astros.
So, can Cease bounce back once again in this matchup against the first-place Orioles?
Hitting has certainly not been an issue for Baltimore this season, ranking in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS.
However, going against Cease may be a different story. Through 99 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Baltimore lineup possesses a fade-worthy .226 BA, .333 SLG and .302 wOBA.
Perhaps the worst area of the Orioles' game against Cease in the past is avoiding strikeouts. Over those aforementioned 99 plate appearances, they own a troubling 27.3 K% and 30.8 Whiff%.
White Sox vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
We're going to target that strikeout vulnerability in this matchup. Currently, you can find Cease's strikeout prop as low as 5.5 at FanDuel, and we're going to take the Over.
This season, the right-hander ranks in the 72nd percentile in K% and 82nd percentile in Whiff%. In fact, he has recorded at least six punchouts in 13 of his past 16 starts.
While Cease has put together some very troubling starts this season, he has a knack for bouncing back, something that could occur against a team that he is 2-1 through five career starts against with a 3.07 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Over those five outings, he averages 7.6 strikeouts per game.