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White Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on Team Total in Matinee Matchup (Saturday, May 21)

White Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value on Team Total in Matinee Matchup (Saturday, May 21) article feature image
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Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees)

  • After their game was postponed on Friday, the White Sox and Yanks open their series Saturday afternoon.
  • Nestor Cortes Jr. has been nearly unstoppable this season, but the value lies on a certain team total.
  • D.J. James previews the matchup and dives into his betting pick below.

White Sox vs. Yankees Odds

White Sox Odds +180
Yankees Odds -220
Over/Under 9 (-115 / -105)
Time 1:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Chicago White Sox and the New York Yankees start their series Saturday afternoon after Friday’s game was postponed to Sunday due to inclement weather.

It looks like the White Sox will throw Dallas Keuchel in this one. In last weekend’s series, Keuchel threw five innings against this Yankees team with no runs allowed. He still yielded seven baserunners — three of which were walks — so the control issues remain for the former Cy Young Award winner.

On the other side of the diamond, Nestor Cortes Jr. mowed down White Sox hitters last Sunday at will. He threw eight innings and only allowed one earned run on three hits and zero walks.

The Sox traditionally smoke left-handed pitchers, but Cortes already impressed against them. Due to that, it’s hard to find a handicap on their side.

However, the Yankees have been phenomenal when facing lefties this season. Do not expect a repeat performance from Keuchel, thus the Yanks’ Team Total should go Over.

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What’s the Real Deal With Sox’s Keuchel?

Chicago has been streaky — to say the least. The White Sox own a 19-19 record, ranking second in the AL Central.

Keuchel’s last outing was a blessing, given the injuries and litany of other issues his team has experienced in a month and a half of baseball.

Keuchel does not have much velocity, so the Average Exit Velocity against him ranks in the 72nd percentile and his Hard Hit Percentage is actually 28.9%.

This does not tell the whole story, though. Keuchel has a 3.98 xERA and may also be a little unlucky this season, but his 5.54 ERA is no mistake. His walk percentage (11.7%) is nearly as high as his strikeout percentage (12.5%), and that should not be happening.

The Yankees may have a 24% strikeout mark against southpaws this season, but Keuchel will not get too many batters via the strikeout.

Tim Locastro, who has dominated lefties in the few games he has seen them, is sidelined, but the Yanks still have seven other batters with .360+ xwOBA marks on the season. This should be enough to produce runs consistently against Keuchel.

The Yankees will succeed offensively because of the reasons discussed above, but that is without even mentioning that they hit the ball hard. This team ranks first overall in Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Percentage, which should cut into Keuchel’s usual edge over hitters. He may not throw the ball hard, but these Yankees will still hit it hard.


No Stopping Yanks’ Cortes

On the flip side, Cortes is probably the AL Cy Young leader at the moment. Although he is about average in terms of allowing hard hit balls (47th percentile), he has excelled in every other peripheral category with ease — his xERA is an astounding 2.17, his strikeout rate is 32.5%, and his xSLG is an incredible .322.

This should be enough to get through the Chicago order.

Typically, this White Sox team will have a field day with a southpaw at the helm. It should not happen here, though, considering Cortes only let two men on base at Guaranteed Rate Field last Sunday.

Pair that with the Sox only holding a 91 wRC+ against lefties this month, and there is not too much confidence in their offense producing in this one.

Either way, there is no value on their side in this game.

White Sox-Yankees Pick

This should be a simple bet. The Yankees’ bats are hot against righties, and Keuchel is not nearly as good as Cortes.

Since the moneyline is steep, there is some value on the Yankees Over Team Total. After all, the Chicago bullpen has been a bit unlucky, with a 4.46 ERA versus a 3.43 xFIP. The Sox have some volatile arms who could come into this game if Keuchel takes an early exit.

Expecting he will, betting this line from over 5 (-120) to 5.5 (-110) is reasonable.

Pick: New York Yankees Team Total o5 (-120) | play to 5.5 (-110)

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