World Series Betting Preview | Diamondbacks vs Rangers Predictions
Getty Images. Photo Illustration by Matt Roembke.
The 2023 MLB World Series begins on Friday night when the American League champion Texas Rangers host the National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks.
Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Let's talk series price and World Series prop bets before digging into Game 1 between the Diamondbacks and Rangers.
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World Series Picks & Predictions
Series Moneyline Corner
Here are my updated projections for the 2023 World Series:
The Texas Rangers are currently -170 (63% implied) to -175 (63.6% implied) favorites to win the World Series, with Arizona as high as +150 (40% implied) to become just the second champion to finish the regular season with a negative run differential (1987 Twins).
As a result, Arizona is closer to the value side of the moneyline at current odds, but I would need at least +166 (37.6% implied) to bet the Diamondbacks on the series line before Game 1.
Exact Result
Exotic prop markets — like futures markets — have a much higher hold than standard betting lines.
For example, the Game 1 moneyline at DraftKings (currently -166 for Texas, +140 for Arizona ) has a 4.1 percent hold, meaning the combined odds imply a win rate in the game of 104.1%.
Conversely, the hold on an exact result market for the World Series will be higher than 10% for most books. And using DraftKings odds, it's 12.3%. That's why finding value in these markets is extremely difficult.
Comparing odds at both Caesars and FanDuel, you can find as high as +52o on Texas to win in 5 games (FanDuel), +420 on Texas to win in 7 (Caesars), or +800 on an odds boost (Caesars) on Arizona in 5 games.
Still, all those prices fall short of my projected lines; the hold in this market eliminates the possibility of an edge. Otherwise, I'd happily sprinkle any of these at close-to-break-even pricing.
Total Games and Series Over/Under
Using my exact result projections from the prior section, we can easily extrapolate the odds of the series length.
Some books offer total game props for the World Series as a one-way market with four options (first table). FanDuel offers slightly better odds than Caesars in that market but still has a 7% hold at their listed odds. Aside from the vig, our projections are closely aligned. Again, I'm comfortable betting any of these small for entertainment if you can find break-even pricing, but it's hard to get that.
DraftKings — and other books offering three separate two-way prop markets for total games in the series (second table) — each have a hold closer to 4% rather than the 7-12% we referenced in the past two sections.
Some books, like BetMGM, offer both types of total games prop betting for the World Series, but make sure to shop around for the best lines in these markets.
Among all of these props, I'm most interested in the Over 5.5 Games wager and essentially taking the series to be 3-2 either way, headed back to Texas for Game 6.
If I bet on one of these blindly — even without the projection to justify it — that would be the one. Still, I could only find the -170 at DraftKings and -175 BetMGM in New York; I'll keep trying to find something closer to -160 before Game 1.
Series Spread
Some prop bets are worded differently but express the same outcome. For example, Diamondbacks -3.5 games or Rangers -3.5 games are the same as betting those teams to win 4-0 in the exact result market, and if you're interested in either of those bets, make sure to check both lines.
The plus or minus +1.5 and 2.5 game bets require slightly reconfiguring the numbers I have already provided above.
The closest line I could find to value in this market is Diamondbacks +1.5 Games (-135 at Caesars); still, I'd prefer to bet the series Over 5.5 Total Games prop from the prior section:
Most Valuable Player and Other Player Props
Of the 70 World Series MVP winners, 41 (58.5%) were hitters, and 29 (41.5%) were pitchers, including three closers. However, 12 of the first 14 winners were pitchers, and the rate has declined.
Many Hall of Famers have won the award, including Sandy Koufax (x2), Bob Gibson (x2), Brooks Robinson, Reggie Jackson, Roberto Clemente, Johnny Bench, Mike Schmidt, Paul Molitor, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter and Randy Johnson.
Recent winners include perennial All-Stars like Stephen Strasburg, Corey Seager, George Springer, Salvador Perez and Madison Bumgarner. Typically, name-brand talent takes home the honors.
Still, there are several "off the radar" World Series MVPs throughout history, including rookie Jeremy Peña (2023), Jorge Soler (2022), Steve Pearce (2018), David Freese (2011), Scott Brosius (1998), Pat Borders (1992), Ray Knight (1986), etc.
I don't have a way to model the World Series MVP — so these are purely my thoughts based on reading the market, but I suspect these six players are worthy MVP stabs or player prop bets at long odds.
Eovaldi can start Games 1 and 5 and pitch in relief in Game 7 — as Jordan Montgomery did in the ALCS for Texas. It's the same plan Bruce Bochy used with Madison Bumgarner when he won the World Series MVP in 2014. Eovaldi could potentially start Games 4 and 7, both on short rest, but he has the potential to collect three wins in this series regardless.
Conversely, Torey Luvullo never considered using Zac Gallen out of the bullpen in Game 7 of the NLCS.
If I took a pitcher from Arizona, I'd look to Brandon Pfaaft (+6600), who has impressed in the postseason. Still, Pfaaft won't start until Game 3 or pitch more than twice in this series, and he'd need to be near-flawless in both starts.
Additionally, I'd take Eovaldi (+250 at Caesars) over Pfaaft (+700) or any other pitcher to lead the series in strikeouts.
Hitting out of the leadoff spot, Semien projects to lead Texas in both plate appearances and runs scored. I expected Semien's pricing to be closer to +1000 — roughly where Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte are.
While he's struggled to get hits in the playoffs thus far (.507 OPS), Semien has shown a strong plate approach (6 BB, 6 K in 58 plate appearances) and seems on the verge of busting out. Bet Semien to lead the series in hits (+950 at FanDuel and bet365).
Like Eovaldi, Heim likely returned too early from injury as the Rangers made their postseason push. The switch-hitting catcher tore a tendon in his left wrist on July 26 and returned to action on August 13, but he posted a 62 wRC+ the rest of the way (4 HR) compared to a 118 wRC+ before the injury.
He appeared closer to total health in the ALCS while slugging a pair of homers — his first extra-base-hits since September 20 — and remains in a prime RBI spot in the Rangers' lineup.
Additionally, Heim is important in controlling the Diamondbacks' running game. He ranked tied for second among all catchers with five Defensive Runs Saved against stolen bases this season.
I considered betting on the Rangers DH, Mitch Garver (+3000), who regularly hits fifth, but he took a pitch off the ribs in Game 7 in Houston and is still experiencing discomfort.
Arizona's rookie was the only catcher better than Heim at cutting down stolen base attempts this season (+7 DRS). He's also hit third for the Diamondbacks throughout the playoffs and leads the team with 9 RBIs.
Bet Moreno to lead the World Series series in RBI (+2500); Arizona has regularly set up hit-to-contact opportunities with speedsters Geraldo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte on the basepaths.
If Arizona steals this series, it will likely need to match the Rangers' power output, and its two best home run hitters will likely need to contribute.
I'd consider either of these sluggers to lead the series either in home runs (+1000 and +2000, respectively), RBIs (+1100 and +2000, respectively), or total bases (+1200 and +2200, respectively). Still, you can get better odds on either in the MVP market.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers Game 1
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+142 | 8 -114 / -106 | +1.5 -146 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-168 | 8 -114 / -106 | -1.5 +122 |
Zac Gallen vs. Nathan Eovaldi (full projections here)
Season long-metrics prefer Zac Gallen and would give Arizona the starting pitching advantage in this matchup. However, the two pitchers have trended in opposite directions during the playoffs.
Nathan Eovaldi's season-long numbers are tainted by a disastrous second half, where he returned prematurely from injury while pitching at reduced velocity. The veteran righty posted a 103 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ before his IL stint (100 being league average), compared to a 97 Stuff+ and 91 Pitching+ figure after returning to the Rangers' rotation for the stretch run.
However, he looks back near total health and effectiveness in the playoffs, averaging 95 mph or higher in all of his playoff starts (sat closer to 94 mph over the final two months of the regular season) while posting a 30%+ called-strike plus whiff rate (CSW%) in three of four outings (22% in Game 7 against Houston).
Among Arizona's lineup, Only Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (7-for-18, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 K), Evan Longoria (3-for-12, 2 BB, 3 K), and Tommy Pham (2-for-6, 0 BB, 2 K) have seen Eovaldi before.
Gallen faced the Rangers twice this season, dropping a 6-4 decision in Arlington in May (5 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 6 K) and recording a 6-3 win at home in August (6 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 11 K). He's limited their lineup to a .665 OPS in 89 plate appearances (24.6% K-BB%).
Still, while Eovaldi has ramped back up to full effectiveness in the playoffs (2.89 xFIP), Gallen has struggled with his command in the playoffs (13 K, 9 BB, and a pair of wild pitches in 22 1/3 innings) while allowing a postseason-high six home runs. And he's been a consistent regression candidate all season.
As a result, I do give Eovaldi a very slight edge (by about a tenth of a run on a projected ERA) between these two starting pitchers for Game 1 — having both upgraded Eovaldi and downgraded Gallen in the playoffs relative to their season-long metrics.
I also like both pitchers to go relatively deep into this game, with both of their bullpens working extensively in the prior series — even if one of these pitchers falls behind, I expect their manager to push them for innings and outs in what could be another long series.
Bet Eovaldi Over 15.5 Outs and Gallen Over 15.5 Outs — to -135 and +100, respectively — for Game 1.
The bullpen battle should also be highly competitive, like the starting pitching matchups throughout this series. And I expect to favor the Diamondbacks if both teams deploy a bullpen game in Game 4. I prefer their high-leverage relievers.
While the Rangers have several relievers to neutralize Corbin Carroll, their high-leverage group projects much better against lefties than righties — and they have fewer true relievers and more converted starting pitchers compared to the Diamondbacks as depth options for the middle innings.
As you might expect, both bullpens have overachieved this postseason; Arizona has a 3.31 ERA and a 4.25 xFIP; Texas has a 3.67 ERA and a 5.61 xFIP. They both ranked as below-average units during the second half of the season but got hot at the right time.
Overall, the pitching matchup is a relative coin flip.
Texas has the better position player group, both offensively and defensively. The former is not at all surprising (Texas 4th with a 114 wRC+, Arizona 17th with a 99 wRC+), but the latter potentially is (Diamondbacks ranked 2nd in Outs Above Average and 4th in Defensive Runs Saved; Texas finished 3rd and 7th, respectively).
Evan Carter is incredibly impactful on both sides of the ball:
Texas should be in its more favorable split throughout the series; the Rangers had relatively similar numbers against righties and lefties over the entire season but ranked eighth against righties (112 wRC+) in the second half and fourth in September (121 wRC+) compared to 16th (96 wRC+) and 26th (79 wr+) respectively against southpaws.
Conversely, Arizona featured a predominantly right-handed lineup and was league-average against lefties in September (97 wRC+) compared to 26th against righties (80 wRC+).
As a team, Texas has posted a 124 wRC+ in the playoffs, compared to a 99 wRC+ for Arizona; the Rangers' strikeout rate is one percent lower, and their walk rate is four percent higher.
Both teams have avoided chasing pitches and whiffing at very similar rates. However, the Diamondbacks have allowed opponents to pound the zone (17.4% called-strike rate), while Texas has swung more aggressively at strikes (72.% vs. 65.5%)
I think Arizona will approach Corey Seager — and, to a lesser degree, Evan Carter — like they approached Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber toward the end of the NLCS, pitching around him and making other guys beat them.
As a result, I like Seager to walk in Game 1 (to +115) and may keep betting that throughout the series, depending on how they pitch to him.
I projected the Rangers as -135 favorites (57.5% implied) at home in Game 1, and I would bet Arizona down to +145, at just under a two percent edge compared to my projected line.
Assuming the roof will be closed, I set the total at 7.67 runs and would bet Under 8 to -105.
World Series Prop Bets
- Series Hits Leader: Marcus Semien (+950, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Series RBI Leader: Gabriel Moreno (+2500, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Series Strikeout Leader: Nathan Eovaldi (+250, 0.2u) at Caesars
- World Series MVP: Nathan Eovaldi (+1800, 0.1u) at bet365
- World Series MVP: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (+4000, 0.05u) at bet365
- World Series MVP: Jonah Heim (+4500, 0.05u) at FanDuel
- World Series MVP: Gabriel Moreno (+2000, 0.1u) at bet365
- World Series MVP: Marcus Semien (+1600, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- World Series MVP: Christian Walker (+2000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
Sides and Totals for Diamondbacks-Rangers Game 1
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+150, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +145)
- Under 8 (-102, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -105)
Prop Bets for Diamondbacks-Rangers Game 1
- Nathan Eovaldi, Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-120, 0.1u) at BetMGM (bet to -135)
- Zac Gallen, Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+115, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +100)
- Corey Seager, Over 0.5 Walks (+145, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +115)
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