Yankees vs Guardians Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview
Via Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Domingo German #0 of the New York Yankees pitches during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Yankee Stadium on April 04, 2023 in the Bronx borough of New York City.
- The Guardians host the Yankees on Monday night in a rematch of their ALDS series from last October.
- The Yankees will send Domingo German to the mound while the Guardians will counter with Shane Bieber.
- Kenny Ducey breaks down the matchup and shares his favorite betting pick for the game below.
Yankees vs. Guardians Odds
-111 / -109
-111 / -109
We’re in for a treat on Monday as two teams that thrilled us by going the distance in the ALDS last year get set for a three-game series in Cleveland. The opener should be a good one as the Guardians send their ace to the hill against the Yankees, but does that necessarily mean an easy path for the home team?
Let’s break down our Yankees vs. Guardians preview and betting predictions.
The Yankees are tearing the cover off the ball right now. Despite ignoring the glaring hole in left field and dealing with a slumping rookie in Anthony Volpe, this team is third in wRC+ to start the season. They’re top 10 in terms of walks per plate appearance, third in Barrel Rate and sixth in Hard-Hit Balls per Swing.
The Yankees have now scored at least four runs in all but one of their games, which came in a 4-1 loss to the Phillies last Tuesday. Better yet, they’re third in the league with a +19 Run Differential and have the third-best record in baseball as a result at 6-3.
Now, it’s very early, but the Yankees offense sure looks better than I would have expected entering the year. While the same can’t be said for Domingo German, I do think there’s reason to believe in him on Monday.
The right-hander was roughed up a bit by the Phillies in his first outing of the season with a couple of homers charged to his line, but he did allow just four hits with eight strikeouts. Homers have always been his Achilles heel, with his problem peaking in 2019 when he allowed 30 round-trippers. With that said, his Barrel Rate came down in 2021 and then decreased again in 2022, which resulted in an impressive 3.61 ERA in 72 1/3 innings.
The Guardians, simply put, are the Guardians. They’re putting the bat on the ball a ton with just a 20.6% Strikeout Rate, and their discipline has led to an appealing 11.2% Walk Rate. They’re amazing at getting on base, but their .110 ISO has left them with just an 89 wRC+ to this point.
As someone who loves contact hitting, I do love watching this team play. It’s undeniable, though, that their few power bats need to pick it up. Josh Bell has been atrocious to start the year, and Josh Naylor has just a 102 OPS+. The rest of this machine is functioning fine, but without the big boppers doing their jobs, there’s only so many runs this team can score.
Cleveland is now 26th in Hard-Hit Balls per Swing and dead last in Barrels per Plate Appearance.
Ace Shane Bieber takes the hill for the Guards tonight. His four-seam fastball velocity is down again this year, as is the velocity on his slider. It clearly hasn’t hurt him yet considering he’s allowed just three runs over his first two starts, spanning 12 innings, but he has struck out just 10 during that time. It’s also worth noting that he’ll experience a huge step up in competition here considering he faced the Mariners and A’s to begin the season.
Yankees vs. Guardians Betting Pick
Bieber has a 5.74 career ERA against the Yankees and a 3.70 career ERA at home. On the road he’s been great with a 2.76 ERA, but the former two spots have really burned him.
This will be a dreaded home start against the Yankees, and it will surely be a shock to the system for Bieber. The last time he faced the Yankees was last postseason, when this team couldn’t hit the broad sign of a barn.
The last two times he’s pitched, he’s faced some pretty middling lineups. The Yankees are one of the worst offenses you could possibly ask to face right now, and surely Bieber won’t be ready for what’s to come.
I do think this is a great spot for German as well, considering he’s really only been hindered by homers throughout his career. As we covered above, the Guardians certainly won’t be hitting the ball very hard or very far here.
Consequently, I see a huge edge on the Yankees.
Pick: Yankees ML +132
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