Yankees vs Marlins Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks on Friday, August 11

Yankees vs Marlins Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks on Friday, August 11 article feature image
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Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Jesus Luzardo

Yankees vs. Marlins Odds

Yankees Logo
Friday, Aug 11
6:40 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Marlins Logo
Yankees Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+1.5
-178
8
-115o / -105u
+122
Marlins Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-1.5
+146
8
-115o / -105u
-144
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
FanDuel Logo

We have ourselves a rematch of the 2003 World Series as the Miami Marlins are set to play host to the New York Yankees. While much has changed in 20 years, one thing that is true yet again is that both clubs are currently in postseason contention.

The Yankees have remained afloat in the American League wild-card race as the return of Aaron Judge put some life back into their lineup. However, there are more significant concerns on the hill as New York has been searching for answers behind Gerrit Cole, but they could have someone step up tonight.

As for the Marlins, they have greatly outperformed expectations and capitalized on the struggles of many teams in the National League, as they enter tonight's matchup in sole possession of the third wild-card spot.

Find a betting preview, pick and prediction for Yankees vs. Marlins on Friday, August 11, below.


Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

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New York Yankees

The Yankees' bats have begun to dig themselves out of the crater that was made when Judge was on the IL. It's been well-documented just how bad this lineup was without him, but the numbers suggest they are on the right track and are due to get better.

New York is eighth in xwOBACON, which is surprising for a team that has a collective batting average of .232 on the season. What that means is that they are due for some positive regression at the dish as their xBA is 14 points higher, and their xSLG is 26 points higher than their current team slugging percentage.

While the Yankees are on their way up offensively, we may not see that positive regression come to fruition in the early innings of this matchup. The main reason is that they will be up against Miami's ace, Jesus Luzardo.

Luzardo has been electric this season, pitching to a 3.52 ERA through 23 starts. He's allowed a good deal of hard contact, but that's only when opposing hitters have connected off him, as his ability to generate swings and misses is as good as anyone in the game.

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins are in a position to make a playoff appearance this season, and they went for it by making savvy acquisitions of Jake Burger and Josh Bell at the trade deadline. Those two have made immediate impacts and joined a Marlins core that has been making a great deal of contact this season.

However, power has been the one inconsistency in this lineup, which is why Miami ranks 23rd in xwOBACON. The Marlins are reliant on stringing hits together instead of playing for one big blast. That may help Yankees starter Randy Vasquez tonight.

This will be Vasquez's fourth career start, and he's been excellent in his three other spot starts this season. He enters with a 1.17 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. He has not surrendered much loud contact and has slight command issues, but he's given us no reason to doubt him in this matchup.

We should expect him to be solid again, as he certainly has the potential to give the Yankees another quality outing.

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Yankees vs. Marlins

Betting Pick & Prediction

While the Yankees and Marlins are on their way up offensively, it will be the starters who shine in this matchup. Luzardo has been tough to square up, and he's due to bounce back after a tough last outing against Texas.

His counterpart, Vasquez, should keep the Yankees in this one, as the park will help him keep the ball in the yard even if he regresses a bit. Take the under in the first five tonight.

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