Yankees vs Orioles Odds & Prediction: How to Bet Finale (5/2)

Yankees vs. Orioles odds for the series finale at Camden yards have the Yankees installed as -115 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 9. For my Yankees vs. Orioles pick, I will be looking at the total.

Let's dive into the Yankees vs. Orioles odds and make a pick in our MLB betting preview for Thursday, May 2.

Carlos Rodon has gotten off to a dominant start this season, posting a 2-1 record with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP through his first six starts. There were nine or fewer total runs scored in four of those six outings.

Based on his underlying metrics, regression is unlikely as Rodon ranks in the 91st percentile in pitching run value, the 63rd percentile in xERA, the 74th percentile in xBA and the 77th percentile in Barrel%. That success could continue against Baltimore, a team he boasts a 3.72 ERA against over their past two meetings.

Additionally, there were nine or fewer total runs scored in each of those games. Following Rodon is a trustworthy bullpen that ranks fourth in the league in ERA and 12th in FIP. That just leaves us with New York's lineup, which has gotten off to a strong start this year.

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With that said, Baltimore's pitching staff is capable of limiting the damage. At the time of writing, a starting pitcher hasn't been announced for the Orioles as they plan to make a decision closer to first pitch.

However, regardless of who starts the game, we know Baltimore's bullpen will be relied on at some point. That is good news for the Orioles as their relief staff ranks in the top 10 in both FIP and xFIP.

Like the Yankees, Baltimore's lineup has gotten off to a great start this season. That gives us a good sell high opportunity as this lineup possesses a mere .143 BA, a .357 SLG and a .292 wOBA through 18 career plate appearances against Rodon.

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The total is set at 9.5 for a few key reasons. First, Baltimore's pitching plans are up in the air as of late Wednesday evening.

However, I would counter by saying that uncertainty just means the bullpen will be heavily relied on, and the Orioles' relief staff has done a fantastic job thus far. The other key variable contributing to this high total is that these are two of the best offenses in baseball.

That fact remains true, but I still believe 9.5 is an over adjustment — especially in a game where Rodon is pitching as there have been nine or fewer total runs scored in four of his six starts this year (and one of those only went over nine in extra innings).

Pick: Under 9.5 (-124 at FanDuel | Play to -115)