Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Prolong New York’s Funk? (Friday, August 12)

Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Prolong New York’s Funk? (Friday, August 12) article feature image

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge

  • The Yankees are short road favorites in tonight's rivalry matchup with the Red Sox.
  • New York sends Domingo German to the mound against Boston ace Nathan Eovaldi.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds

Yankees Odds-125
Red Sox Odds+105
Time7:10 p.m. ET
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The most storied rivalry in baseball is set to add another chapter as the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox will open up another three-game set this evening.

So much has changed since these two rivals last faced one another. The Yankees got more potent at the deadline, while the Red Sox wheeled and dealed but are currently last in the AL East. However, Boston may have an opportunity to steal this opener.

Domingo German will be on the mound for the Yankees. While his 5.09 ERA through four starts may not look great, he's been much better through his last three outings and appears to have gotten his bearings since returning from injury. Although, his underlying metrics don't tell the same story as his last few outings.

Getting the ball for Boston will be Nathan Eovaldi. He's had some ups and downs since returning from the IL in July, but he may be catching the Yankees at the right time. His outing will decide who wins this matchup.

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Eovaldi to Add to Yankees Regression

The Bronx Bombers have taken a step back in the second half as they are no longer the best lineup in the majors. While their descent in statistical rankings is not substantial, the drop-off has significantly impacted the win and loss columns. As a result, the Yankees enter this matchup 2-8 in their last 10.

Over the last two weeks, New York has been hitting just .241 as a team. The Yankees are not swinging and missing more often, it has just been an extended stretch of poor contact made by a powerful lineup. In that same span, their BABIP is just .266, which ranks 26th in the majors.

As for Eovaldi, his underlying metrics may indicate he's in for another rough outing, but there are a few that point to him having a nice bounce-back performance.

First, there has been no drop-off in his stuff from last season, where he posted a 3.75 ERA and a 2.79 FIP. His command has also been excellent, as his walk rate ranks in the top two percent of all qualified pitchers.

Another metric that displays how effective his stuff has been is his chase rate. Eovaldi's chase rate is in the top 15 percent of the majors, and it is primarily due to his increased usage of his splitter. That pitch has been highly effective for him this season as it has a BAA of .156.

That pitch has also increased his groundball rate, which will also help counteract the Yankees' power as they have one of the highest flyball rates in the league.

Expect Boston to Jump On German

German's numbers are inflated from a rough first start of the season, but some of his other metrics highlight how bad he has been.

If he qualified for Statcast rankings, his hard-hit rate, xwOBA and xBA would all be near the bottom of the league as he's given up a great deal of hard contact. Those numbers are the reason that his xERA is 6.66, and his FIP is 5.78 despite him only allowing two runs or fewer in three of his four starts.

Despite the Red Sox being at the bottom of the division, this Boston lineup is dangerous and can do damage against someone with those types of numbers. The Red Sox rank seventh in team batting average and are sixth in hard contact rate.

The top of their order features their four most productive hitters in terms of hard-hit rate and xwOBA. So expect them to be responsible for the tallies on the scoreboard.

Yankees-Red Sox Pick

A deeper look into this matchup shows whose track record you need to trust between the men on the mound. German has been hit hard consistently since returning, and Eovaldi is due to return to his form from last year.

Conversely, the Yankees may have great numbers against Eovaldi, but that is not the same team that will show up tonight. New York is regressing mightily, and Eovaldi has the stuff to counteract their approach.

Boston has the pop to get to German early. While that may not be in the first inning, it should be on the board by the third or fifth. So while you can back the Red Sox on the final five line, there is still a bit more value on the full game price.

Pick: Boston +110

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