Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Preview, Prediction: Will the Offenses Get to Cole & Eovaldi at Fenway? (Friday, September 24)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Gerrit Cole
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
|Red Sox Odds||+100|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
If the season ended today, the best rivalry in baseball would take center stage for a one game, winner-take-all Wild Card game at Fenway Park.
But it doesn’t end today. And this three-game series between New York and Boston is huge as the Yankees try and make sure that Wild Card game is in the Bronx, and they both try to hold off the Blue Jays and red hot Mariners.
Boston enters the weekend series 8-2 in its last 10 and winners of seven in a row, while New York has won three straight and is 7-3 in its last 10. The Yankees swept the Red Sox in their last series, but that was in New York, and now they had back to Boston where the Sox are 6-1 against the rivals this year.
New York Yankees
Coming off his worst outing of the year, Gerrit Cole (RHP) will look to bounce back on Friday. Currently the second-favorite to win the AL Cy Young, Cole is 15-8 with a 3.03 ERA.
Cole has been up and down at times this year but when he is on, he is still one of the most dominant pitcher’s in the game. He ranks in the top 10% of pitchers in xERA and xwOBA on the year and his 12.28 K/9 rate is the second best in the league.
After a slow start to the season, the Yankees offense came alive following the All-Star break and has climbed up to 11th in wOBA and 8th in wRC+. Over the last two weeks that rank in the top of the league in both categories.
The big boys are crushing the ball for New York lately. In the last two weeks Joey Gallo has seven home runs, Aaron Judge has six and Giancarlo Stanton has five.
No player has loved being part of the Yankees / Red Sox rivalry more than Luke Voit. In 35 games against the Red Sox he is batting .351 with a 1.084 OPS and has hit 11 home runs.
Boston Red Sox
Like most of Boston’s pitching staff this year, it is fair to say Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) has been good, but not great. He is 10-8 on with a 3.58 ERA on the year but has not registered a decision for six straight starts.
Eovaldi’s fastball ticks 97 MPH, but that pitch has been hit around a bit this year. However, his cutter and curveball have both been very good. He has pitched much better at home, registering a 2.99 ERA at Fenway compared to his 4.62 ERA on the road.
Boston’s offense has been near the top of the leaderboards in most categories all season. The Sox rank third in wOBA and have scored the fourth most runs in the league.
Xander Bogaerts started the year red hot, that went cold for a stretch, and now is on fire again. Over the last two weeks he is batting .368 with a 1.151 OPS. That whole lineup is hitting really well right now.
Yankees-Red Sox Pick
I think the best way to approach this game is to attack the total. Both of these offenses coming into the game hitting the ball really well. Over the last two weeks both of these teams rank in the top five of the league in wOBA and wRC+.
The Yankees have hit 33 home runs in the last 14 games, the most in the league and their big boys of Judge, Stanton and Gallo all come into the game red hot and Voit has been a Red Sox killer in his career.
It is always scary to bet an over with Cole on the mound, but Fenway Park has been a house of horrors for him in his career. In five starts in Boston he has a 5.19 ERA and is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA this season.
This is the start of a huge series between two bitter rivals and I expect to see some fireworks all weekend. I’ll play the over here.
Pick: Over 9 (-105)