Sunday Night Baseball on June 8 features the conclusion of the New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox series at Yankee Stadium, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN.
This AL East rivalry series has not been short on offense, with the Sox and Yankees combining for 32 runs over the first two games. Will that trend continue tonight?
Continue below to find my Yankees vs Red Sox over-under pick for Sunday Night Baseball.
My Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction
- Yankee vs Red Sox picks: Under 8 (-115; Bet365); Playable to Under 7.5
My Yankees vs Red Sox best bet is the game total to stay under 8 runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Red Sox Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 7.5 -118o / -103u | +193 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 7.5 -118o / -103u | -240 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm seeing Under 7.5 listed at -105 or even +100 at several major books. Ideally, try to grab Under 8 at anything up to -120 — that’s the optimal number. If 8 isn’t available, you can still play Under 7.5 at a slightly reduced unit size.
Now, let’s break down why there’s serious value on this under tonight.
Sunday's Red Sox-Yankees game exploded for 17 total runs, with 13 of them coming in the first five innings — and eight of those 13 from Boston alone. I don’t see that happening again. That kind of early offensive outburst was an outlier, and the public is clearly chasing a repeat.
But I’m leaning the other way — especially with Carlos Rodón on the mound for New York. He’s been one of the most effective starters in the league this year, and with the series on the line at home, I expect a locked-in performance.
This isn’t the same Yankees team from last night, and Rodón isn’t the type to let the game get away early.
Beyond the narrative, we’ve got multiple strong systems lining up on the under — and they fit this spot beautifully. These systems are hitting in the 60–61% range all-time, some even hitting above 75% this season. These include parameters like:
Late series games (game 3 or 4)
Fair weather conditions (wind not blowing out)
Reverse line movement against public overs (favorable movement towards the under)
Both teams going over in their previous game despite having season-long under rates below 45%
These are sharp systems — and tonight gives us a rare mix where several converge in one spot.
Bottom line: I’m expecting a tight, low-scoring finale with most of the run suppression coming from the Boston side.
When you combine the public overreaction, elite SP angle, and system support, there’s real value on the under here.
Pick: Under 8 (-115 Bet365); Playable to Under 7.5
Moneyline
I have no pick for the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no pick for the run line.
Over/Under
As outlined above, Under 8 is the optimal play.
