Yankees vs Twins Odds & Pick: Tuesday MLB Prediction

Tuesday, May 14

7:40 p.m. ET

TBS

New York Yankees Odds
Run Line	Over/Under	Moneyline
-1.5 +136	8.5 -110o / -110u	-120

Minnesota Twins Odds
Run Line	Over/Under	Moneyline
+1.5 -162	8.5 -110o / -110u	+100

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Yankees vs Twins odds for the Tuesday series opener at Target Field have the Yankees listed as -118 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 8.5 (-110o / -110u). For my Yankees vs Twins pick, I will be looking at the total.

Let's dive into my MLB betting preview and get into my Yankees vs Twins prediction for Tuesday.

New York Yankees

New York hands the ball to left-hander Carlos Rodón on Tuesday evening, and he should be a good fade candidate. Through eight starts this season, Rodón possesses a 3.56 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.

Those are certainly not the worst stats in the world, but his underlying metrics are more concerning. Entering this matchup, the left-hander ranks in the 26th percentile or lower in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

This expected regression is likely to occur against Minnesota, a team Rodón owns a fade-worthy 5.66 ERA against over the past nine meetings. There were nine or more total runs scored in eight of those nine outings.

Following Rodón is a bullpen that is also due for regression. Despite the Yankees' relief pitching rank in the top half of the league in both ERA and FIP, they rank in the bottom half of the league in xFIP.

However, this pitching staff should get plenty of run support, as New York ranks in the top nine of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.

Minnesota Twins

The Yankees' lineup is likely to take advantage in this matchup, as right-hander Chris Paddack is slated to take the mound for Minnesota. Through sevens starts this season, he possesses a fade-worthy 4.34 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

There were nine or more total runs scored in four of those seven outings. Based on his underlying metrics, positive regression is unlikely for Paddack; he ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

These woes are likely to continue against New York, a team the right-hander got shelled by in their lone career meeting. In that outing, Paddack surrendered four runs on six hits through five innings.

However, like Rodón, Paddack may get a good amount of run support. The Twins rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.

Yankees vs. Twins

Betting Pick & Prediction

Both of these teams' lineups rank in the top half of the league in every key category. So, when looking at the over, it just comes down to the pitching.

Paddack has struggled both statistically and analytically, while Rodón's underlying metrics suggest regression is looming for him as well. That regression is likely to come to fruition against Minnesota, a team he has struggled mightily against.

The trends are all on our side in this one as well when looking at games these pitchers have been involved in.

Pick: Over 8 (-110 at bet365 | Play to -115)

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