Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun
| Vagaev Odds | -162 |
| Malkoun Odds | +136 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-345/+250) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE |
| Bout Time | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 333 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 333 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun prediction for UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Vagaev vs. Malkoun pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Vagaev | Malkoun | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-4 | 10-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 11:08 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/13/1993 | 8/26/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.80 | 4.23 |
| SS Accuracy | 38% | 56% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.20 | 2.33 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.00 | 5.39 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 42% |
| TD Def | 71% | 55% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.8 |
Vagaev vs. Malkoun Pick, Prediction
UFC matchmaking has become much more intentional in recent years, and Russian and Chechen regional fighters have often been given soft matchups in Abu Dhabi, accumulating a 33-3 record since 2021, including a 20-1 record in decisions, when they are not facing one another.
As a result, it's hard to pull the trigger on Jacob Malkoun to win by decision (projected +217, listed +250) in what should be a wrestling match with Abubakar Vagaev; Malkoun has poor finishing instincts, and he's unlikely to get competitive rounds decided in his favor as the away team in this arena.
While Malkoun can have durability issues, neither man seems powerful enough to threaten the other standing seriously (Vagaev is coming up from welterweight), and both are sound enough defensively to avoid being submitted.
Still, the price on this fight to go the distance is steep (listed -260) compared to the divisional average of around 59% (-144 implied odds), and I think Malkoun by decision or particularly his point spread (+3.5, -170) are better expressions of that likelihood.
Zerillo's Pick:
- Jacob Malkoun +3.5 Points (-170, 0.2u), DraftKings; bet to -185
