Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov
| Thicknesse Odds | +470 |
| Chopurov Odds | -650 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120/-154) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE |
| Bout Time | 11:45 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 333 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 333 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov prediction for UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Thicknesse vs. Chopurov pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Thicknesse | Chopurov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 | 11-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | N/A |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/23/1999 | 11/17/2001 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.24 | 0.00 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 0% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.93 | 0.0 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 0% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.67 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 7% | 0% |
| TD Def | 33% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 1.7 | 0.0 |
Thicknesse vs. Chopurov Pick, Prediction
Asaf Chopurov, the UAE Warriors champ, was considered one of the best non-UFC fighters in MMA. Still, he will make his octagon debut on Saturday against Alexander Volkanovski's chief training partner, Colby Thicknesse.
Thicknesse is well-rounded and has never been finished, but he has little finishing power himself; the question is whether he can survive and cover a near 5-1 price tag by surviving against a dangerous debutant.
Thicknesse came close to falling against both Vince Morales and Josias Musasa in recent wins, and Chopurov – who has just 11 pro fights but 35 amateur MMA bouts under his belt- has a wealth of experience at 24 years old.
I projected this fight to reach a decision about 45% of the time, compared to a divisional average closer to 54%, and I still see value on the goes-to-decision or distance prop, compared to listed odds of +180.
Bet Over 2.5 Rounds (+130) or the Fight Goes the Distance Prop (+180) down to +135.
Moreover, I show correlated value on Chopurov to win by decision (projected +195, listed +250) at +225 or better.
Zerillo's Picks:
- Fight Goes to Decision (+180, 0.2u), FanDuel; bet to +135
