Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon
| Steele Odds | -155 |
| Gugnon Odds | +130 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+130/-166) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE |
| Bout Time | 10:45 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 333 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 333 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon prediction for UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Steele vs. Gugnon pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Steele | Gugnon | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-1 | 10-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:21 | 1:21 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/21/1995 | 10/18/2000 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.85 | 3.70 |
| SS Accuracy | 32% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.20 | 4.44 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 68% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.07 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 0% |
| TD Def | 100% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 11.1 |
Steele vs. Gugnon Pick, Prediction
I'm close to betting Noah Gugnon in this matchup, but I want a price nearer to +140, compared to my projection at +129. The Frenchman is the better striker in this fight, particularly defensively, and he's a solid grappler too.
Moreover, Kody Steele tends to get comfortable hunting submissions from bottom, while Gugnon has an excellent top game and nasty ground-and-pound; I could see Steele ceding bad positions and providing subpar minute-winning optics at the wrong moments in this contest.
Steele is a good athlete and should have the cardio edge over most opponents, and he may be the more durable man in this matchup too. Still, I expect Gugnon to land the more damaging strikes in the first 10 minutes and potentially finish it himself.
While I'd wait for a better number on Gugnon's moneyline, I'm also interested in his odds to win by KO/TKO (projected +358, listed +440) or inside the distance (projected +220, listed +275).
Alternatively, I also show value on Steele to win by decision (projected +323, listed +440)
DraftKings is offering the double chance prop for Steele by Decision with Gugnon by KO/TKO at +150; I'd project that fair line at +120.
However, if you play both props individually at +440, you can get a higher expected return than the individual +150 double-chance prop.
I rarely bet on both sides of a fight, but unless you get a better number on Gugnon's moneyline, this seems like the optimal approach; or you can also swap Gugnon inside the distance for his KO line.
Zerillo's Picks:
- Noah Gugnon wins Inside the Distance (+275, 0.15u), DraftKings; bet to +250
- Kody Steele wins by Decision (+450, 0.1u), FanDuel; bet to +350
