Abus Magomedov vs. Joe Pyfer Odds
| Magomedov Odds | +205 |
| Pyfer Odds | -250 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-154/+120) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 320 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 320 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Abus Magomedov vs. Joe Pyfer prediction for UFC 320on Saturday, October 4, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Despite neither of these fighters having a ranking next to their name, this middleweight matchup between Abus Magomedov and Joe Pyfer feels like the winner will be in line for a title eliminator fight in their next outing. The line for this bout continues to move in favor of the favored Pyfer, but I am seeing value on the underdog in what I expect to be primarily a kickboxing affair.
Here's my Magomedov vs. Pyfer pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Magomedov | Pyfer | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-6-1 | 14-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:19 | 8:20 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 78" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/02/1990 | 9/17/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.21 | 3.74 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.68 | 3.20 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.65 | 1.35 |
| TD Acc | 57% | 42% |
| TD Def | 100% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.7 |
Both fighters were thrust into the contender circle very early in their career, only to suffer losses that set them back in their meteoric rise. Since their respective losses, both Pyfer and Magomedov have made improvements to round out their skillset while still possessing the dangerous finishing ability that created the hype surrounding them initially.
Joe Pyfer may boast an abundance of skills, but he is looking to move forward and use his boxing to win fights. His physicality and strength make it difficult for any opponent to take him down, and I do not expect Magomedov to be the one to close the distance and drag him to the mat.
However, the threat of the level change is just another concern of Pyfer that may make him hesitate in moving forward. Magomedov has landed 11 takedowns during his three-fight winning streak, so he may pursue some grappling, but only Jack Hermansson has managed to get Pyfer down. That came in round 5 after Pyfer’s cardio had been drained. While I am not expecting success in this specific area for Magomedov, a single takedown could sway a round’s scorecard.
Distant management will be the key for Magomedov. He has the benefit of a three-inch reach advantage and has the opportunity to dictate the range this fight plays out by unleashing his kicking attack. Magomedov has an effective front kick to the body that can allow him to frustrate and break the rhythm of Pyfer. Magomedov has the ability to take a measured approach by using his movement skills and long-range weapons to out-point the powerful Pyfer while simultaneously staying out of harm’s way.
Both fighters are considered fast starters, but Magomedov needs to make sure he doesn’t find himself in exchanges that allow Pfyer to headhunt. Whenever they are exchanging strikes inside the pocket, Pyfer will undoubtedly have the upper hand.
With that said, the raw power of Pyfer is overstated. He has nine knockout victories in his MMA career, but the most impressive may have come against an aging Marc-Andre Barriault, which isn’t saying much. Pyfer has yet to showcase this supposed power against any middleweight near the top 15 in the rankings.
Magomedov vs. Pyfer Pick, Prediction
I believe Magomedov has the tools needed to keep Pyfer at distance and keep him guessing. He is a live underdog and probably worth a play on the moneyline given the value. However, my best bet for this fight needs him to win a single round on just one of the judges’ scorecards.
DraftKings offers a point spread market, with most bouts lined at 3.5, but Magomedov is getting 7.5 points, meaning he simply needs to avoid getting finished or losing 30-27 on all three scorecards.
John's Pick: Abus Magomedov +7.5 +100 (DraftKings)
