King Green vs Terrance McKinney Odds
| Green Odds | +110 |
| McKinney Odds | -130 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+300/-425) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 329 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 329 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the King Green vs Terrance McKinney prediction for UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Green vs. McKinney pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Green | McKinney | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 35-17-1 (1 NC) | 18-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:46 | 2:36 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 9/9/1986 | 9/15/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.46 | 6.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.55 | 3.45 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 43% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.33 | 3.31 |
| TD Acc | 43% | 40% |
| TD Def | 72% | 72% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 2.1 |
Green vs. McKinney Pick, Prediction
I project King (formerly Bobby) Green as a favorite in this matchup even though he will likely be in severe danger of getting finished early; if fights were 90 seconds long, Terrance McKinney might be the lightweight champion, but his cardio – and effectiveness – seemingly evaporates after three explosive minutes; McKinney is the definition of a glass cannon.
McKinney may try to grapple early in this fight. He is as good a technical wrestler as he is powerful at striking, and Green has shown some vulnerabilities in his defensive grappling when opponents aggressively hunt submissions.
Moreover, Green's durability has declined in his late thirties – I thought he was "done" after a brutal (triple) knockout loss to Jalin Turner in 2023. Then again, when he ate a spinning wheel kick against Mauricio Ruffy in 2025, he responded with three consecutive victories, including a vintage, sustained domination over a rising prospect and larger man in Daniel Zellhuber.
McKinney has the power to put any fighter down, and Green likely gets hit hard early, but if he survives that first or second explosion, I would be ready to fire live; you usually don't get until the end of the first round before the live line starts to move back against McKinney after a fast start.
I make Green a slight favorite and would take him pre-fight at +105 or better, but if you're active in the live market, you'll likely get a better price on Green during or after Round 1, unless McKinney finishes him first.
I wouldn't mind having Green pre-fight, as McKinney is almost equally chinny, and nearly as likely as Green to succumb to a quick finish, with diminishing win probability for every second that ticks off the clock, in contrast to the Pinas-Almeida fight, with a bigger age gap and more uncertainty about Pinas' cardio and durability in extended contests (and where I'd rather wait to speculate live).
I do think there's too much submission equity baked into this line as well – I project an edge on either fighter to win by KO/TKO, and would make the KO/TKO ends -300, compared to listed odds of -175.
Pair Green's moneyline with the ends KO prop, or wait for a live entry on the Green side.
Zerillo's Picks: Fight Ends by KO/TKO (-160, 0.25u), Polymarket; bet to -275, King Green Live during/after Round 1
