Feb 17, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Robert Whittaker fights against Paulo Costa during UFC 298 at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Check out the Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov prediction for UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Whittaker vs. Krylov pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Whittaker
Krylov
Record
27-9
31-11
Avg. Fight Time
10:20
6:58
Height
6'0"
6'3"
Weight (pounds)
205 lbs.
205 lbs.
Reach (inches)
73"
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Date of birth
12/20/1990
3/7/1990
Sig Strikes Per Min
4.39
4.36
SS Accuracy
43%
54%
SS Absorbed Per Min
3.36
2.59
SS Defense
59%
47%
Take Down Avg
0.73
2.05
TD Acc
38%
37%
TD Def
82%
53%
Submission Avg
0.0
1.2
Whittaker vs. Krylov Pick, Prediction
Nikita Krylov is my largest projected moneyline edge on Saturday's card, as I project him north of 55%, when he's sitting at plus-money (albeit down from +180) against Robert Whittaker.
I'm perplexed to see Whittaker – a small middleweight – move up to Light Heavyweight to face the much larger Nikita Krylov (3" taller, 4" reach advantage), particularly after struggling with the physicality of larger middleweights like Khamzat Chimaev, Dricus Du Plessis, and Reinier de Ridder/
Whittaker should be the much faster man, and neither he nor Krylov are particularly durable at this stage of their respective careers, but the moment the momentum tilts towards Krylov in this fight, I would expect him to pick up steam.
Whittaker has generally performed well in those losses, up until the moment he faced resistance and began to feel the power advantage for his opponents.
Bet Krylov to -115, and play the fight to end inside the distance, up to -165, and consider adding Krylov by KO/TKO (to +275) or inside the distance (projected +192; listed +250, bet to +210).
The 20-pound jump from middleweight to light heavyweight is a lot more drastic than the 10-pound jumps from bantamweight to lightweight, or the 15-pound jump from welterweight to middleweight, and Whittaker already seemed increasingly undersized at 185 pounds.
Zerillo's Picks: Nikita Krylov (+108, 0.5u), Polymarket; bet to -115, Under 2.5 Rounds (-120, 0.25u), BetMGM; bet to -135
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About the Author
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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