Check out my Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev prediction for UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev Odds
| Volkanovski Odds | -110 |
| Evloev Odds | -110 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-270 / +200) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE |
| Bout Time | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 333 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 333 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
On Saturday, the UFC returns to Abu Dhabi for a 14-fight card, featuring a featherweight title bout between two-time champion Alexander Volkanovski and No. 1 ranked contender Movsar Evloev.
Volkanovski will seek his second title defense since recapturing his 145-pound belt over Diego Lopes last April, and he will try to break the record for most featherweight title fight wins (currently tied with Jose Aldo at 8), and re-break the record for the oldest fighter to defend the featherweight belt. Saturday's bout will mark his 12th consecutive five-round title fight.
Evloev (20-0) has a perfect 10-0 promotional record, but has yet to record a finish in the UFC, winning all of his fights by decision (one split and one majority), including his recent main event win over Lerone Murphy in March. Evloev does have additional five-round experience from his time in M-1 Global, where he won and defended the Bantamweight championship.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 333 Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these featherweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 4:30 p.m. ET (1:30 p.m. PT) on Saturday evening.
Here's my Volkanovski vs. Evloev pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Movsar Evloev is slightly taller (1") and longer (1") than Alexander Volkanovski, but he's also 5.5 years younger than the 38-year-old, future Hall of Famer.
Volkanovski upended some history by recapturing his belt against Diego Lopes; before that bout, and the subsequent rematch, fighters age 35+ in title bouts (below middleweight) were just 2-30 all-time; it's difficult to stay competitive in the smaller divisions once your speed and athleticism begin to slip.
Volkanovski is both the more technical and efficient striker, outlanding opponents by 2.2 significant strikes per minute at distance, compared to 1.0 for Evloev. Volk has spent 75% of his fight time at distance, however, compared to just 57% for Evloev.
The Russian will look to implement his wrestling in this fight; he has averaged 5.3 takedowns per five minutes at distance throughout his career, and, apart from Islam Makhachev, Volkanovski hasn't faced many grapplers of Evloev's caliber. As a result, while their control rates are similar (82% for Evloev, and 79% for Volkanovski), I do think the challenger can get on top of the champion. Volk's getup game is far better than his first-layer takedown defense (69%; denied 31 of 45 attempts), and Evloev is generally efficient when he shoots (53%; landed 51 of 97 attempts).
One way that Evloev reliably secures takedowns is by catching kicks and knees from his opponents, which could limit a significant part of Volkanovski's offensive game plan. The Aussie excels at overloading his opponent's decision-making with excellent footwork, constant feinting, and quick combinations, but if he can't threaten or mix in low kicks, it could make his game plan relatively one-dimensional; this is a rare opponent that Volkanovski (2.1 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance) can't offensively wrestle to alleviate pressure.
Evloev has clear grappling upside, but while I'd favor Volkanovski in a pure kickboxing match, Evloev also has a clear durability edge; he's never been knocked down and has rarely looked fazed by strikes against UFC opposition. Conversely, Volkanovski has been knocked down or wobbled in several UFC bouts before losing via KO/TKO to both Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria. His recoverability has always been better than his durability, and that continued in his matchups with Lopes; he got knocked down in the second round of their first fight and seemed capable of getting clipped again while otherwise dominating the minute-winning.
Moreover, while Volkanovski has historically excellent cardio, Evloev has proven he can fight for 25 minutes; some people were skeptical.
He's also been extremely unlucky not to get a finish during his UFC run. Evloev has faced a litany of durable opponents, and though he hasn't recorded an official knockdown, he has wobbled and bloodied several of his foes. While Volkanovski is the most skilled opponent he has faced, he's also one of the less durable opponents he's drawn over this 11-fight run, and my model likes Movsar to find his first UFC finish in a potential star-making spot on Saturday.
Unless Evloev secures multiple back-takes or consistently maintains top control, which is unlikely against a scrambler as good as Volkanovski, the scorecards are likely to be close; Evloev will land more takedowns and control time, but Volk should generate more striking volume over 25 minutes.
Still, I favor Evloev's physicality – particularly his power and durability- against an opponent who, at 38, is well beyond the divisional age curve (avg. 33), while having shown a tendency to get clipped at some point in each of his fights.
Volkanovski vs. Evloev Prediction, Picks
I projected Movsar Evloev as a 54.5% favorite (-120 implied odds) in this fight, and I would play his moneyline up to -110.
However, I prefer his finish props, projecting Evloev to win by TKO/KO at +782 and his inside-the-distance prop at +476, compared to listed odds of +1000 and +600; bet Evloev to record his first UFC knockout and/or finish at +850 and +500, respectively.
To that end, I also like Evloev in the finish-only market at even money or better.
And lastly, you can find Evloev to land 1+ knockdown at +480 at FanDuel (albeit at small limits); take that prop down to +400.
Sean Zerillo's UFC 333 Best Bets
- Movsar Evloev (bet to -110)
- Movsar Evloev wins by TKO/KO (bet to +850)
- Movsar Evloev wins Inside the Distance (bet to +500)
- Movsar Evloev: 1+ Knockdowns Landed (bet to +400)
- Movsar Evloev: Finish Only Moneyline (bet to +100)
