Oct 4, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Daniel Santos (red gloves) reacts after the fight against Joosang Yoo (blue gloves) during UFC 320 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
Read our UFC 333 predictions for this live event on Saturday from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The prelims kick off at 10:00 a.m. ET on Paramount+, with the main card at 2:00 p.m.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
We've got a ton of closely lined fights on UFC 333, including the early prelim bout between Daniel "Willycat" Santos and Bolaji Oki on the early prelims. However, I'm not sure the line should be so close in this one.
Santos is 4-2 in the UFC compared to 2-3 for Oki, with Tapologies Strength of Schedule metric rating Santos' past opponents as tougher. The caveat there is that Oki had, until now, fought at lightweight, and is dropping down to featherweight for this bout. One could argue that the 40th (for example) best lightweight in the UFC is considerably better than the 40th best featherweight, though I'm not sure I'd agree with that take as both divisions are fairly equally stacked.
More importantly, a 30-year-old fighter on a losing streak deciding to drop a weight class isn't typically a good sign. The late-career weight move, especially down, is sometimes referred to as "The fighter's false friend" as it's often used in lieu of fixing whatever skill problems have plagued a fighter in the past. Plus, the weight cut can have a negative physical impact on a fighter's cardio and/or durability.
Both of those traits will be tested by the dynamic Santos, who has two knockout wins in his four UFC victories, and has pushed an aggressive pace deep into his fights that have gone to a decision. More importantly, unless Oki has plugged the hole in his grappling game, the new weight class won't save him. Santos averages 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, and has won every fight in which he's landed a takedown.
I would say the -120 line on Santos is about right if this were strictly a kickboxing match, but when you add in his grappling equity is vastly undervalued. I would bet "Willycat" down to -150.
Despite incorrectly picking the result in both Dominick Reyes’ and Azamat Murzakanov’s last fights, I feel like I have a solid read on this particular pairing. And with the only southpaws slated for UFC 333 facing each other, it was almost as if this fight called for my specific analytical touch when it comes to lefties.
As I always say, no one hates fighting southpaws more than other southpaws, when you consider that most of their games are predicated against orthodox opposition. In this case, I believe that Murzakanov will be the more comfortable man in this matchup given how well his boxing translates to the stance pairing.
Both men technically stand at 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws, but Murzakanov also knocked out a stance-switching Tafon Nchukwi when the Lloyd Irvin product switched to southpaw in this UFC debut. Whereas Reyes, who beat a southpaw-primary stance-switcher in Ovince St. Preux, looked noticeably uncomfortable whenever OSP went lefty, as he limited himself to mainly leg kicks.
I don’t disagree with Murzakanov being north of a 2-1 favorite, but that money line is too much exposure for my liking. Instead, I’ll opt for plus money by playing Murzakanov’s primary win conditions (particularly against Reyes) by taking him to win in rounds 1 or 2 in alternate prop markets.
Pick: Murzakanaov in Rounds 1 or 2 +106 (BetRivers)Â
For more analysis of this fight, check out my preview of Yan-Dvalishvili II from December, when I bet Yan on the moneyline and by decision at +350 and +600, respectively.
With those prices now at -135 and +140, it's hard to get behind the current champion again. However, it's a bit easier to swallow when you recall that Yan was a -240 favorite before the first fight; I think that's closer to the correct line for the trilogy bout.
Yan was severely compromised during the first fight, throwing his right hand fewer than five times across a 25-minute bout. Moreover, that fight being in the APEX benefitted Merab greatly, as he could consistently pursue takedown attempts and shove Yan up against the fence while giving the Russian limited opportunities to get back to the center of the cage.
Yan is one of the best anti-wrestlers in the sport — perhaps the best now that Jose Aldo has retired – and he has shown an ability to mix in trip takedowns against both Merab and his teammate, Aljamain Sterling, in their four prior encounters. His style seems like the perfect antidote to Merab's aggression, and I don't think "The Machine" can get back to his peak self at 35; his best efforts are likely behind him.
Prime Merab is unlike anything I have ever seen, but I do think his athleticism has crested. He doesn't have a fighting style that will age particularly well, as his physicality continues to diminish.
Merab landed more significant strikes than Yan in the rematch. Still, he absorbed much more damage than his opponent, and if the trend continues, Yan could become the second man to finish Dvalishvili in MMA and the first to knock him out.
I project an edge on Yan's moneyline, and would bet him up to -165 (projected -180). However, I don't see an edge on the total or any winning-method props.
Yan also typically starts slowly to make his reads before stepping on the gas in Round 2; he's worth a live bet after Round 1 if he falls behind in any matchup.
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