Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes
| Murzakanov Odds | -198 |
| Reyes Odds | +164 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+100/-130) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE |
| Bout Time | 1:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 333 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 333 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes prediction for UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Murzakanov vs. Reyes pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Murzakanov | Reyes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-1 | 16-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:17 | 7:51 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 77" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 4/12/1989 | 12/26/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.40 | 4.99 |
| SS Accuracy | 56% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.68 | 0.25 |
| TD Acc | 20% | 28% |
| TD Def | 88% | 82% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Murzakanov vs. Reyes Pick, Prediction
Dominick Reyes is the bigger man in this fight – 6" taller, with a 6" reach advantage- but he's likely to get sniped by Azamat Murzakanov, a finisher with one-punch power who has consistently defeated longer and taller Light Heavyweights.
Murzkanov is coming off his first career loss and knockout defeat himself- against Paulo Costa in April – and his chin may be cracked now following that performance. He always seemed small for the 205-pound division, and at age 37 he's not getting any younger.
Still, you have to prefer his durability – Reyes has been knocked out four times, including three KO losses in Round 1. Reyes seemed on his way out of the sport several fights back, but he still has a path to either a knockout win or a volume-based decision as an underdog.
While my model points to Reyes as the potential value side of this fight, setting his fair odds at +167, compared to odds as high as +186 on prediction markets, I'm still inclined to pass. As stated above, the UFC has been incredibly intentional with their recent matchmaking, and Reyes is the clear "B" side of this matchup.
Zerillo's Picks: Pass
