Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev
| Dawson Odds | -115 |
| Aliev Odds | -105 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-245/+185) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE |
| Bout Time | 12:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 333 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 333 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev prediction for UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Dawson vs. Aliev pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Dawson | Aliev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-3-1 | 12-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:00 | 12:55 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/20/1993 | 12/8/2000 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.14 | 2.29 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.14 | 1.59 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.58 | 3.48 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 51% |
| TD Def | 66% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 1.4 | 0.5 |
Dawson vs. Aliev Pick, Prediction
I project an edge on either the Under 2.5 Rounds or Fight to End Inside the Distance, and for Grant Dawson to win by finish (projected +300, listed +360) in Saturday's bout with Nurullo Aliev.
Dawson is relatively chinny and can be knocked out with a clean shot by any opponent, but he's one of the best back-takers in the sport and offers a lethal rear-naked choke, plus damaging ground-and-pound when opponents let him stay on top.
Aliev is the younger man (7 years) and a solid wrestler in his own right (11.1 to 5.5 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance in favor of Dawson) who has controlled opponents – in a more limited sample – just as much as Dawson has (90% to 92%). Still, Dawson is the superior finisher if this fight goes to ground.
Bet the inside-the-distance prop at +145 or better, and play Dawson to finish to +325.
Still, in what could be a wrestling-heavy fight, I wouldn't want any part of Dawson's moneyline as the road fighter in Abu Dhabi if it reaches a decision.
Zerillo's Picks:
- Aliev/Dawson, Fight Ends Inside the Distance (+152, 0.15u), FanDuel; bet to +145.
- Grant Dawson wins Inside the Distance (+360, 0.1u), BetRivers; bet to +325
