On Saturday, the UFC stays home at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 12-fight card, featuring an important showdown in the welterweight division between former champion Belal Muhammad and No. 11-ranked contender Gabriel Bonfim.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 118 Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these welterweights, who are expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:15 p.m. ET (7:15 p.m. PT).
Check out the Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim prediction for UFC Vegas 118 on Saturday, June 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim Odds
| Muhammad Odds | x |
| BonfimOdds | x |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (x/x) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 118 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 118 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Muhammad | Bonfim | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-5 | 19-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:22 | 7:48 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 07/09/1988 | 08/20/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.43 | 4.61 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.82 | 3.68 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 63% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.14 | 3.60 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 55% |
| TD Def | 90% | 76% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.4 |
Gabriel Bonfim is both the bigger athlete (2" taller) and the younger man in this matchup (nine-year age gap) against former champion Belal Muhammad.
Still, Bonfim, who has finished five of his seven UFC opponents and 17 of his 19 professional wins, has a big frame for 170 pounds and doesn't have the best gas tank, which could pose an issue as he experiences the championship rounds for the first time against an opponent who has seen the judges four different times in five-round fights.
While he secured all three rounds in his 2024 decision over Ange Loosa, Bonfim dropped a unanimous second round to Stephen Thompson and also lost the third round on one of three scorecards in that July 2025 bout. Both of those fights were after his 2023 finish loss to Nicolas Dalby, when Bonfim gassed out halfway through the fight.
All of that is to say that Belal should find more success as the fight goes on, and the former champion is worth a look in the live market at some point during or after Round 2.
Still, the 37-year-old has looked like a declined version of his former self in his recent losses to Jack Della Maddalena and Ian Machado Garry. Belal didn't force the grappling until the fourth round against JDM, and he was unable to get Garry to the ground (0-for-7 on takedown attempts) in his more recent loss.
At his peak, Belal was an excellent point fighter: a durable athlete with good cardio and an efficient distance striker (+0.5 differential per minute) who could mix in takedowns or hold opponents against the fence and control them for extended stretches. He never had a ton of power, nor was he particularly explosive, but that was offset by his technical efficiency, defensive prowess, and pace.
While Bonfim carries more power and is the more powerful and efficient striker by the numbers (+1.4 differential per minute), I'd trust Belal's sustainability over the course of 25 minutes, and particularly in the back half of the fight.
Bonfim is the more dangerous submission grappler of the pair, with a lethal series of front headlocks, but Belal is the more proven wrestler (90% to 76% takedown defense; 80% to 70% control rate of clinch/ground time), and I expect him to attempt to cage push and make the fight ugly to drain the gas tank of his opponent.
Still, Bonfim may get on top of Belal early (3.2 to 2.8 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance; 54% to 37% accuracy) when both men are fresh and dry; I'd expect him to be clearly the faster, more explosive athlete, and for his power and speed to prove problematic early for the former champion, who has only been finished once (by Vicente Luque in 2016) in his professional career.
Bonfim has more ways to win at distance, but his success often relies on explosive actions, which become less reliable the further the fight gets from the opening bell.
And despite the age gap, I'd expect Belal to pick up momentum as the fight potentially extends and for him to make this a competitive scrap if it ends up going 25 minutes and seeing the judges. He's worth betting live if he's there after five minutes, with the best price potentially coming after Round 2.
Muhammad vs. Bonfim Pick, Prediction
Belal Muhammad opened around -140 (58.3% implied) in this matchup, but the line has moved towards a pick'em as of writing, with some books beginning to tilt towards Gabriel Bonfim as a slight favorite.
My model, which is designed to capture market momentum, had the line as fair with Bonfim listed at +105. Still, now that he's moved from underdog to pick'em/favorite, he's clearly the sharper side of the market, especially with the public consensus backing the former champion (picked at a 61% clip across three datasets).
I projected Bonfim as a 56.5% favorite (-130 implied odds). I would bet his pre-fight moneyline to -120, while looking to potentially pivot to a live bet on Belal at plus money anytime after Round 1, with the best price potentially coming after Round 2.
I align with the total and distance (-105 Yes, -125 No) props for this fight, setting the bout to end by finish 52% of the time (-110 implied).
I do expect Bonfim to win by decision more frequently than the odds suggest (projected +320, listed +500), but I also show a small edge on his odds to win by KO/TKO (projected +395, listed +410).
Sean's Picks: Gabriel Bonfim +102 (BetRivers) | Belal Muhammad Live after Round 2
