UFC OKC Predictions, Picks, Projections, Best Bets for Saturday, July 18

Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:15 p.m. ET

This Featherweight bout was a late addition to the UFC Oklahoma City card. Elliott came in 1.5 pounds overweight on Friday; the bout will continue as scheduled, but Elliott will be fined a percentage of his purse.

The MMA Lab prospect has finished all seven of his wins in Round 1; he's a former state wrestling champion and a well-rounded prospect, but Anderson – a former member of Craig Jones' B-team- is the better pure grappler, and clearly a powerful athlete, with one of the best finishes in the history of combat jiu-jitsu:

The public is seemingly behind Elliott in this fight (71% of 3,300 Tapology votes), but after opening as a favorite, the line has flipped against him.

I projected Anderson as roughly a 60% favorite, and would bet his moneyline up to -135. Additionally, I would target his submission prop at +250 and his inside-the-distance odds at +150.

Pick: Damien Anderson -113 (Kalshi) 

Jose Delgado vs. Austin Bashi

Billy Ward, Staff Writer

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:45 p.m. ET

I've been pretty open about my positive bias towards Austin Bashi this week. Not only is he a grappler, but he's from a gym about 30 minutes from me, and I've gotten to know many of his coaches, training partners, and even family members over the years in the Michigan MMA and BJJ scenes.

Bias aside, this is still an incredible matchup for the 24-year-old.

Bashi is a grappling prodigy who won the IBJJF no-gi brown belt worlds at just 21 years old, was a multiple-time all-state wrestler in high school, and has six submission wins (plus a few via ground-and-pound) on his 14-1 pro record. That loss came in his UFC debut against Christian Rodriguez — a fighter famous for taking the "0" from undefeated prospects, and Bashi still managed three takedowns and stole a round from the much more seasoned fighter.

This time he draws Jose Delgado, a striker who has knocked down three of his four UFC opponents, but surrendered eight takedowns across those four matchups. The only opponent he wasn't able to hurt, Andre Fili, landed four takedowns in what resulted in a split-decision win for Delgado.

The problem has been keeping Delgado down. Fili totaled less than a minute of control time across those four takedowns, as did Nathaniel Wood and Connor Matthews on their two takedowns each. That's where Bashi comes in. Between his folkstyle wrestling background — which has a heavy emphasis on keeping opponents grounded — and his elite BJJ, he has a far better top game than any of Delgado's past opponents.

The other concern for Bashi has been his move up to featherweight. He fought primarily at 135lbs before coming to the UFC, but decided his maturing body could no longer make the weight. Based on his Instagram posts this week, I'm no longer concerned he gets bullied into bigger fights.

I took Bashi at -102 on Monday in my Luck Ratings, with the line moving slightly his way this week. I'm still more than fine with the -105 odds at FanDuel, though, as I'd make him around a -170 favorite. FanDuel also is offering his submission prop at +600, which is well off the consensus +450 line, so I'll have plenty of that.

Finally, if DraftKings offers his over 2.5 takedowns at plus-money, or 1.5 takedowns at -150 or better, I'll take that as well. If Delgado is able to get up from takedowns, he'll likely get taken down again, and if he isn't, Bashi should find the submission, so there's a very strong chance of cashing one or the other.

Pick: Austin Bashi -105 (FanDuel) | Bashi Sub +600 (FanDuel) | Bashi TD Overs (TBD)

Smarter Betting Starts Here

Access real money percentages

Tail picks the sharps are betting

Huge game & player prop edges

SAVE BIG NOW