Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy Odds
| Saint-Denis Odds | +170 |
| Ruffy Odds | -205 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-166/+130) |
| Location | Accor Arena, Paris, France |
| Bout Time | 5:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Paris odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Paris with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy prediction for UFC Paris on Saturday, September 6, with my betting preview and breakdown.
The lightweight co-main event between Benoit Saint-Denis and Mauricio Ruffy has fight of the night written all over it, as the two have combined to finish eight of their nine UFC wins. Both the main and co-main events at UFC Paris feature a hometown fighter taking on a member of the Fighting Nerds team. The local fighters are both underdogs against their Brazilian counterparts, though lines have shifted towards Saint-Denis this week. Is that move justified, or just an opportunity to get a better price on Ruffy?
Here's my Saint-Denis vs. Ruffy pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Saint-Denis | Ruffy | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-3 | 12-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:33 | 9:09 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 75" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/18/1995 | 6/17/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.39 | 4.54 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.61 | 4.59 |
| SS Defense | 41% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.19 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 0% |
| TD Def | 70% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 1.5 | 0 |
The UFC clearly believes in the star potential of Mauricio "One Shot" Ruffy. So much so that this will be his first non-PPV UFC fight, and he's in the co-main event slot of a stadium show in Paris. He's earned that belief so far, picking up two knockouts in his three previous UFC wins and scoring a knockdown in his decision win over James Llontop.
This is a big step up in competition for Ruffy, though. While his previous fight against King Green was primarily an opportunity to showcase Ruffy against a well-known veteran, this fight is a true test for the 29-year-old striker.
The fascinating thing about the Fighting Nerds team is that they all utilize completely different styles. They have ranked fighters in every division from featherweight to lightweight, but no single identity as a team like the feint-heavy style of City Kickboxing or the submission hunting of Renzo Gracie Philly.
Ruffy might have the most unique style of the group, fighting out of a wide stance with his hands held low while pressuring forward and looking to land single devastating shots. The closest stylistic comparison for Ruffy is probably Conor McGregor, but right-handed, with a similar stance and explosive power.
So far, he's proven himself a capable defensive grappler, defending all nine takedown attempts he's faced in the UFC and Contender Series. None of his past opponents have had the takedown ability of Saint-Denis, so this will be an interesting test of his abilities.
Part of Ruffy's takedown defense is based on his length, stance, and dynamic movement making it hard for opponents to get into takedown range. Llontop attempted six takedowns in their fight, though most came after he was badly hurt by Ruffy, which further distorts Ruffy's actual abilities.
On the feet, Ruffy's low hand position makes him somewhat hittable, with a slightly negative total striking differential. However, he's rarely caught clean and shows no ill effects when solid strikes do land.
He presents an extreme challenge with his offense, throwing a variety of strikes from weird angles. He finished King Green with a spinning hook kick and landed up elbows, spinning back fists, and other unconventional attacks.
His biggest weakness might be his cardio, partially a byproduct of his high-energy strikes. That's an intriguing dynamic here against Saint-Denis, since the Frenchman is also typically a cardio liability, as he empties the tank on his early takedowns and attempts to put his opponents away on the ground. The edge there still probably favors Ruffy, who was able to pull off a late third-round finish on the Contender Series:
Saint-Denis' struggles with his gas tank were most evident in his loss against Dustin Poirier. That fight was billed as a showcase for Saint-Denis, who came into the fight on a five-fight winning streak. Saint-Denis dominated the first round, scoring his first takedown within 20 seconds and hurting the American both on the feet and from top position on the mat.
The second round was a different story, with Poirier catching the gassed Saint-Denis on the way in, escaping a bad position on the ground, then knocking Saint-Denis out with a clean right hook.
Ruffy doesn't have the experience or grappling credentials that Poirier has, but could follow a similar game plan if he's able to work his way back to the feet. While "God of War" is also a dangerous striker, he's clearly not as polished or dynamic as Ruffy standing.
Both men do their best work going forward, with Ruffy's pressure leading to openings for strikes, and Saint-Denis using forward momentum to force his way into grappling range. My belief is that whoever is able to best impose that forward pressure likely wins this fight, but it's a risky strategy due to also presenting openings for their opponent.
Saint-Denis vs. Ruffy Pick, Prediction
Working based on that belief, the moneyline side here has to be Ruffy. His footwork is much more dynamic than the straightforward style of Saint-Denis, and Ruffy also has a slight reach edge in this matchup. Two of Saint-Denis' UFC losses came to similarly-built Brazilians, Renato Moicano and Elizeu Zaleski, with Zaleski in particular using his length and awkward striking to land on Saint-Denis.
However, rather than lay the juice on Ruffy, the best bet is to play him to win inside the distance at even money on DraftKings. It's hard to see this one going the full 15 minutes, given both men's finishing ability and shaky cardio, so we're effectively parlaying those concepts into one bet.
Billy's Pick: Mauricio Ruffy Inside the Distance +100 (DraftKings)
