Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan Odds
| Allen Odds | -218 |
| Shahbazyan Odds | +180 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-188/+145) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 118 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 118u with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan prediction for UFC Vegas 118 on Saturday, June 6 along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Fresh off his stoppage victory of Renier de Ridder — that he took on short notice by the way — it's a bit curious to see Brendan Allen getting a step down in competition. He's currently ranked in the top five, with a 9-2 record over the last five or so years with both losses coming to top competition. Edmen Shahbazyan is unranked, but has had a roller coaster career that has seen him viewed as everything from top prospect, completely washed, and potential gatekeeper.
Still just 28 despite almost a decade in the promotion, Shahbazyan is on a three-fight winning streak and looking to crack the rankings as he enters his athletic prime. Allen is no easy out, but Shahbazyan's recent bouts may have prepared him perfectly for this opportunity.
Here's my Allen vs. Shahbazyan pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Allen | Shahbazyan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-7 | 16-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:07 | 7:25 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/28/1995 | 11/20/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.59 | 3.80 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.62 | 3.60 |
| SS Defense | 47% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.56 | 1.62 |
| TD Acc | 42% | 37% |
| TD Def | 56% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 0.4 |
Ever since breaking into the UFC at just 21, Shahbazyan has been one of the more binary fighters in the promotion. If you try to stand with him, he'll probably knock you out quickly, but if you can take him down, he'll gas shortly thereafter.
Four of his first five UFC/DWCS wins came via first-round knockout, and he's finished eight of his ten wins in the Octagon overall. He's also been finished on the ground (either via submission or ground and pound) in four of his five losses, while he was taken down thrice and controlled for more than seven minutes in his lone decision loss.
However, the UFC seemed to allow him to step back a bit in terms of competition over the past couple of years, giving him the opportunity to build his skills that he never really had due to joining the promotion at age 21.
Each of his last three fights has been against grapplers of gradually increasing difficulty. First was Dylan Budka, whom he finished in just over 90 seconds. Then came Andre Petroski, who went just two of six on takedown attempts and held Shahbazyan down for only 23 seconds on those attempts. Most recently, he faced Andre Muniz, who managed just 18 seconds of control time following his lone successful takedown.
The common thread there has been Shahbazyan's ability to make takedowns difficult to come by, and less-than-rewarding, thanks to his excellent get up game. Early in his career, he would often "play jiu-jitsu" from his back, looking for sweeps from guard or submission attempts. That led to him carrying his opponents for extended stretches before typically being finished on his back.
More recently, he's adapted to the modern MMA grappling game by quickly getting to a turtle position and working back to his feet. What has made this so effective for him recently is his ability to use the cage as a shield, keeping his back (or side) along the barrier to prevent back takes.
As a fighter who trained specifically for MMA as its own sport — rather than a converted wrestler, BJJ player, etc — so he's a natural at using the cage to his benefit.
He'll need to do so against Allen, one of the division's better grapplers. My longstanding criticism of Allen is that his relentless pursuit of submissions has given him fairly binary outcomes — either he finds the rear naked choke, or he loses.
He's content to treat most MMA fights like grappling matches, progressing up the positional hierarchy in an attempt to get back control and land a choke, without much thought for damage. In his win over Marvin Vettori, he landed just seven significant ground strikes despite three takedowns, and he failed to land a single significant ground strike on any of his six takedowns against Chris Curtis.
Shahbazyan has typically been much more vulnerable to strikes on the ground than submissions, with his only sub loss coming after he gassed himself out in a near-finish of Gerald Meerschaert. Allen did land some ground strikes on Renier de Ridder in his last fight, but RDR was completely exhausted himself. We'll see if that marks a new approach for Allen, or if he was simply taking the easy route against a fighter whose body had failed him.
Allen vs. Shahbazyan Pick, Prediction
In what should be a fairly binary fight between Shahbazyan's much better striking and Allen's ground/submission game, it's worth noting that Allen has been knocked out twice in the UFC — by Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis, who both train(ed) at Xtreme Couture alongside Shahbazyan.
That could be a coincidence, or it could mean that one of the sport's best game planners, Eric Nicksick, has figured something out in terms of beating Allen. To be fair, Allen has wins over Puna Soriano and Curtis in a rematch, but neither were especially dominant performances.
With my assumption that Shahbazyan is continuing to grow and develop as a fighter, I'd make this line close to even money. With him going off as a considerable underdog, he's one of my favorite bets of the week. I'd be comfortable taking him at any number with a plus sign in front of it.
However, if Shahbazyan sells out for a finish and doesn't get it, I'll be looking to hedge my exposure with Brendan Allen live. I still don't trust Shahbazyan's cardio, and under the right circumstances, we could potentially have plus-money on both men fairly quickly into the proceedings.
Billy's Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan +165 (BetMGM)
