Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling Odds
| Ortega Odds | +220 |
| Sterling Odds | -270 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-220/+170) |
| Location | Shanghai Indoor Center, Shanghai, China |
| Bout Time | 7:45 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Shanghai odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Shanghai with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling prediction for UFC Shanghai on Saturday, August 23, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Two veteran featherweights hoping to make one last run at a title meet in the co-main event of UFC Shanghai. Former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling was sent back to the drawing board with a close loss to Mosvar Evloev in his last fight, while former featherweight title challenger Brian Ortega is coming off a loss of his own. It's now or never if either wants another shot at a title, but who will emerge victorious Saturday morning in China?
Here's my Ortega vs. Sterling pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Ortega | Sterling | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-4 | 24-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:57 | 13:22 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 71" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/21/1991 | 7/31/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.08 | 4.41 |
| SS Accuracy | 37% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.59 | 2.21 |
| SS Defense | 49% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.07 | 2.51 |
| TD Acc | 26% | 29% |
| TD Def | 55% | 42% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 0.7 |
There's a strong case to be made that Aljamain Sterling should be 2-0 as a featherweight.
He made his divisional debut with a dominant win over Calvin Kattar, using his usual grappling-heavy approach to cruise to an easy unanimous decision. Sterling showed that taking down larger fighters was no issue, racking up eight takedowns and more than 10 minutes of control time in a 15-minute fight.
In his follow-up appearance, he was pitted against undefeated Russian Mosvar Evloev. Evloev is also a high level grappler who shares a similar approach to Sterling. Sterling won the first round cleanly, catching Evloev on the feet a few times before controlling him on the ground.
The second round was all Evloev, before a competitive third round went to the Russian. My read on the fight was that Sterling deserved the final round, but his success was at the beginning of the frame, while Evloev took over later, and recency biased swayed the judges to Evloev.
Outside of the somewhat fluky knockout loss against Sean O'Malley, Sterling has only really struggled against fighters who can match his level of wrestling. Petr Yan and Henry Cejudo took him to split decisions, but Sterling dominates most fighters at 135 or 145 with his wrestling and control.
While Sterling isn't the most dynamic striker, he's long even for featherweight, a good athlete, and takes advantage of the fact that his opponents are more worried about takedowns than strikes. That's allowed him to land at a high rate of accuracy during his somewhat brief stretches on the feet, while preventing opponents from being able to sit down on long combinations in the pocket.
Ortega might be Sterling's equal in terms of submission grappling/jiu-jitsu, having started the martial art at age 13. However, his wrestling is clearly not at Sterling's level. What that means for this fight is that Ortega will be forced to fight where Sterling wants to — and make some tough decisions on the ground.
The nickname "T-City" comes from his well-renowned triangle choke, and he's also known for his excellent guillotines. He has two finishes with the technique in the UFC and was a hair's breadth away from defeating Alexander Volkanovski with one to claim the featherweight title.
Both of those submissions are typically performed from your back, though. That means Ortega has to choose between hunting submissions or looking to get back to his feet, where he's the more dangerous striker.
Ortega typically chooses option A, but that's unlikely to work against Sterling. "Funk Master" has never been submitted as a pro MMA fighter, or even as a pro grappler, where he's done four matches.
I also worry about Ortega's durability at this stage in his career. He was dropped early in his loss to Diego Lopes and has dealt with a myriad of injuries. While he's the better technical striker in this matchup, that doesn't matter if his body can't hold up to taking any shots.
All of which explains why Ortega is more than a two-to-one underdog in this five-round fight, as his path to victory is fairly narrow.
Ortega vs. Sterling Pick, Prediction
I almost went with the contrarian pick of Sterling to win inside the distance, as I have my concerns about Ortega's rapidly declining physical health.
However, it's hard to see exactly how Sterling finishes this one outside of Ortega breaking down. Sterling prioritizes control on the ground over damage or submission attempts, and Ortega has also never been submitted.
While Sterling could theoretically pick up a knockout, I doubt he spends enough time striking with Ortega to find out, given how easily he should be able to land takedowns.
Instead, I'm laying the points on Sterling's spread at DraftKings. The -5.5 line is a reasonable -110, and would cash with a Sterling finish or winning at least four of the five rounds on the judges' scorecards.
Those are much easier to cash than the -3.5 lines offered in three-round fights, which require the winner to win every round.
Billy's Pick: Sterling -5.5 -110 (DraftKings)
