Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Perth (Saturday, September 27)

Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes Odds

Check out the Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes prediction on Saturday, September 27, with my betting preview and breakdown.

On Saturday, the UFC returns to Perth, Australia, for a 13-fight card, featuring a Light Heavyweight main event between former title challenger and current No. 7 contender Dominick Reyes and No. 3-ranked Carlos Ulberg.

Ulberg, who trains at City Kickboxing in New Zealand alongside former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, in addition to Cam Rowston, Navajo Stirling, and Brando Pericic, who each fight on the undercard, owns a 9-1 UFC record. He enters off a controversial decision in March over Jan Blachowicz; 75% of fans scored the bout for the former champion, but Ulberg landed more significant strikes (29-16 and 31-25) in each of the final two rounds.

After nearly defeating Jon Jones to win Light Heavyweight gold at UFC 247, Dominik Reyes went winless from October 2019 until June of 2024 – and was finished three times (and kncoked out badly, twice) over that span – but he enters on a three-fight finish streak of his own – all within the past 15 months – and, given his back class, is deserving of another quick ascension towards title contention.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Perth Main Event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these Light Heavyweights. They should make their cage walks at approximately 12:45 a.m. ET (9:15 p.m. PT) on Sunday morning.

Here's my Ulberg vs. Reyes pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Saturday's fight represents the first five-round test of Ulberg's professional career. His lone professional loss came in his official UFC debut – after earning a contract on Contender Series – against Kennedy Nzechukwu; in a fight where Ulberg gassed out after landing 146 significant strikes in eight minutes, while trying to finish a wobbled opponent.

He has learned to pace himself better as he has gained more MMA experience. However, Ulberg has still shown a tendency to slow down when pressured and forced to retreat, or to consistently defensively grapple against his opposition.

Reyes has only seen the championship rounds on one occasion – but Jon Jones clearly took the fourth and fifth rounds in that fight; if Reyes has an argument for winning the belt, it's for the work he did over the first 15 minutes of that contest, and not the final ten. He was otherwise scheduled for five rounds against both Chris Weidman and Jiri Prochazka, but both of those bouts ended inside of two rounds.

As a result, it's difficult to say that Reyes has a definite cardio advantage – or five-round experience – as compared to Ulberg.

Ulberg is the better kicker and the more efficient striker – outlanding opponents by 2.2 strikes per minute at distance, compared to 1.0 for Reyes. He's the better athlete and should have a power and speed advantage from the outset, and I expect him to dictate the majority of exchanges.

Reyes has the more boxing-heavy style and could be the likelier of the pair to grapple offensively. Although they do have similar offensive takedown data (both attempt 0.4 takedowns per five minutes at distance), Ulberg does have the better control rate (82% vs. 49%) of the pair (albeit against lesser competition).

Still, making Ulberg uncomfortable – rather than settling into his desired kickboxing tempo – is the best way to shut him down offensively. If Reyes forces him to defend takedowns early, it will create openings for Reyes's striking offense, as well as mute some of Ulberg's output.

Ultimately, however, I view Ulberg as the more technical and diverse striker in what likely amounts to a distance kickboxing match between fighters who like to counter their opponents.

Their preferred styles could create a relatively tepid pace, especially early, as Ulberg eases into his first career main event.

If any fighter falls on the first exchange, I'd expect it to be Reyes, who seemed like he was closer to retirement than title contention, after his KO loss to Ryan Spann; he closed as a +200 underdog in his comeback win over Dustin Jacoby, after losing as a -195 favorite against Spann.

I'm still unconvinced that Reyes has experienced a physical resurgence in his mid-thirties, after taking substantial damage over a multi-year span. He hasn't had to go through any adversity on his win streak; recording a pair of quick round one knockouts, in addition to a sustained beatdown of Anthony Smith – and I view Ulberg as a more explosive athlete than his recent competition.

Reyes is an extremely popular underdog selection this week, with fans and bettors taking him to win the fight nearly 50% of the time, compared to implied odds of around one-third of the time. As a result, my model shows value on the favorite.

Ulberg vs. Reyes Pick, Prediction

I projected Carlos Ulberg as a -312 favorite (75.7% implied) in this matchup. I would consider placing a straight bet up to -280 (73.7% implied) or including his moneyline as a parlay piece to -300 (75% implied) for Saturday's main event.

Moreover, I project value on the fight to go to decision (projected +238, listed +300) and I show correlated value on Ulberg to win by decision (projected +313, listed +550), which gives us some additional options for betting on the fight.

Depending on your risk tolerance, you can structure two wagers: between the Over 2.5 Rounds (+110) and the goes to decision prop (+300) if you prefer to play the totals. Alternatively, you can build a Same Game Parlay (SGP) with Ulberg and Over 1.5 Rounds (+145 at DraftKings) and structure that alongside a smaller bet on his decision prop (+550), to lean into the projected value on both the side and total.

Sean's Pick: SGP: Carlos Ulberg & Over 1.5 Rounds (+145 at DraftKings) | Carlos Ulberg wins by Decision (+550 at DraftKings)