Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva Odds
| Lopes Odds | +195 |
| Silva Odds | -138 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-166/+130) |
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| Noche UFC odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on Noche UFC with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva prediction for Noche UFC on Saturday, September 13, with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to San Antonio, Texas, for a 14-fight card for Noche UFC, featuring a featherweight main event between Jean Silva and Diego Lopes.
Lopes — who is 5-2 in the promotion — will hope to bounce back from a title fight loss to Alexander Volkanovski in April; the Brazilian had moments in the fight but lost a clear unanimous decision to, arguably, the GOAT of the 145-pound division.
Silva owns a 6-0 UFC record, including his contract-earning performance on Contender Series, with his last five victories (and 15 of 16 career wins) coming by finish. Still, Saturday's bout will mark his first career main event or five-round fight, and his championship gas tank could be tested for the first time.
Here's my Lopes vs. Silva pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Lopes | Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 26-7 | 16-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:36 | 8:22 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/30/1994 | 12/27/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.70 | 4.87 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.76 | 4.13 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 50% |
| TD Def | 67% | 86% |
| Submission Avg | 1.9 | 0.9 |
Diego Lopes is the taller and longer fighter (4 " taller, 3" reach advantage). His own gas tank held up better against Volkanovski — in his first career five-round fight — than I expected it to, averaging 9.4 strike attempts per minute in the final two rounds against Volk, compared to a pace of 6.1 strike attempts per minute over the first three rounds of the fight.
Moreover, Lopes — a dynamic submission grappler with a mean uppercut and substantial power on the feet — showed that he carries his power deep into his fights, hurting Volkanovski and stealing the second and fourth rounds on different scorecards.
Still, he was outclassed mainly in terms of technique and variety in an extended striking match (out-landed 142-59 at distance), and I expect a similar skill gap on the feet against Silva, who carries more power and has better finishing instincts than the current champion.
Silva has shown continued improvement in his defensive wrestling (86%; denied 13 of 14 attempts against Bryce Mitchell) and grappling, and it seems unlikely that Lopes will be able to get this fight to the mat repeatedly (has only five takedown attemptws in the UFC; 0.5 per minute at distance), or consolidate position against Silva; perhaps he can catch the neck and lock up a submission in a scramble.
Otherwise, however, unless Silva initiates the wrestling (one attempt in the UFC; 0.2 per five minutes at distance), I see another extended kickboxing match, where Silva has more power, diversity of technique, and far more competent defensive skills.
Lopez (46% striking defense) is going to get his head boxed in by Silva, and struggle to hit the target in front of him (47% accuracy for Lopez; 56% defense for Silva).
I regularly cite the combined striking accuracy and defense numbers – with championship calbre opponents sitting near 110 (108 combined for Silva; 114 for Volkanovski) and below average minute-winners south of 100 (93 for Lopes); while these stats can become somewhat skewed by exceptionally soft or difficult past matchups, it's a quick and easy reference point to suss out a striker's relative ability to control the action in front of them (similar to K-BB% for a pitcher in baseball).
By that measure, the striking differential in this fight is relatively stark.
Lopes was able to rack up a winning streak by finishing opponents with questionable durability; Silva is a spcecial athlete, and I think he runs away with this matchup, provided he doesn't tire out in the championship rounds, or become overly patient and fail to seperate himself on volume (career -0.2 strike differential for Silva vs. -1.3 for Lopes per minute at distance).
Still, Lopes is durable in his own right, and I could see Silva stopping him late or winning a wide decision.
Lopes vs. Silva Pick, Prediction
I projected Jean Silva as a -279 favorite (73.6% implied) and would bet his moneyline up to -250 straight, or use it as a parlay piece to -275.
Moreover, I show a slight edge both on the overs or the fight to go to Decision (projected +217, listed +240) and on Silva to win by Decision (projected +423, listed +500).
I wouldn't mind late round stabs on Silva to win in Round 4 (+1000) or Round 5 (+1200) since he has an attritional striking style – mixing combinations to the head and body, which could eventually wear his opponent down.
However, I would rather bet Silva's point spread (-5.5, -180), which covers in the event of a finish or comfortable decision win. Lopes may have big moments in this fight, but Silva should win the vast majority of minutes on damage and output. Still, that price moved up from -165 to -180 as of writing, and I don't think there is enough of a discrepancy from his moneyline not to lay a bit extra juice.
Alternatively, you could play an SGP with Silva and Over 1.5 Rounds (-118) or ladder that up with the Over 2.5 Rounds (+140), Over 3.5 Rounds (+220), and his decision prop (+500) to lean into the combined projected edges on Silva's moneyline and the GTD prop.
Sean's Pick: Jean Silva (-250 or better; -275 as a parlay piece) | SGP: Jean Silva and Over 1.5 Rounds (-118 at ESPNBet) | SGP: Jean Silva & Over 2.5 Rounds (+140 at Caesars) | SGP: Jean Silva & Over 3.5 Rounds (+220 at BetRivers) | Jean Silva wins by DDecision(+500 at BetRivers)
