Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy Odds
| Fiziev Odds | -112 |
| Ruffy Odds | -108 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-180/+140) |
| Location | Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 325 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 325 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy prediction for UFC 325 on Saturday, January 31, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Fiziev vs Ruffy pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Fiziev | Ruffy | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-4 | 12-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:17 | 8:54 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 75" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/5/1993 | 6/17/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.77 | 3.84 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.77 | 4.16 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.30 | 1.71 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 35% |
| TD Def | 79% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 1.3 |
Fiziev vs Ruffy Pick, Prediction
Rafael Fiziev is an extremely public underdog this week, receicing 61% of the support in my data sample, compared to implied odds nearer to 50%. As a result, my model has Ruffy as the sharp side of the fight, setting him as a near 58% favorite (-137 implied odds); bet Ruffy to -130.
Additionally, I show a slight edge on the fight reaching a decision, projecting that line at -159, compared to listed odds as low as -150; take the distance or decision prop to -155.
Ruffy is the bigger man (3" taller, 4" reach advantage, three years younger) and the younger athlete (by three years); moreover, I have thought that Fiziev seemed a bit slower in his past two fights since returning from his ACL tear, deploying his wrestling (and landing all six attempts) against Justin Gaethje and Ignacio Bahamondes.
Fiziev didn't generate much control time with those takedowns – he actually ceded more control than he gained – but he is undoubtedly a superior grappler to Ruffy, who was dominated on the mat in his loss to Benoit Saint Denis. Still, Ruffy has switched camps since that loss – moving to Australia to train with Alexander Volkanovski – and I'm curious to see what adjustments he makes to his style in his first fight since.
While Ruffy is a dangerous, calculated sniper, I'd like to see him show more of a jab and fight behind his length against Fiziev, who struggled with Gaethje's lead hand. He certainly needs to implement more volume (-0.6 strike differential per minute) against high-level competition, rather than attempting to set up a finish.
While Fiziev may shoot takedowns, I don't expect him to consolidate position for significant stretches (45% vs. 13% control rate), even if he gets past Ruffy's underrated takedown defense (81%).
And while Fiziev owns better striking by the numbers (+0.1 differential per minute), Ruffy should land the majority of head punches, which should help sway the judges. In contrast, Fiziev will tend to attack with leg and body kicks.
Ruffy has shown championship-level striking efficiency (combined 117% striking accuracy and defense; 102% for Fiziev); if he can keep this fight standing, I expect him to edge out two of the three rounds against a smaller opponent.
Projection: Ruffy (57.8%)
Sean's Picks:
- Mauricio Ruffy (-1115, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to -130
- Fight Goes to Decision (-145, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -155
