Hyder Amil vs. Christian Rodriguez Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Vegas 119 (Saturday June 20)

UFC Fight Night 279 features potential fireworks at featherweight between Christian Rodriguez and Hyder Amil.

Rodriguez, who is a former bantamweight, has spent the last year out of competition following the unfortunate passing of his coach, the late, great Duke Roufus. In said time, Rodriguez has switched up his training camps by following his manager, Anthony Pettis, out to Las Vegas to set up shop at Xtreme Couture MMA.

Rodriguez will take on the oncoming storm in Amil, who is an El Nino Training Center fighter trained by Gilbert Melendez, the old foe of Rodriguez's aforementioned coach.

From a stylistic perspective, this matchup is the classic pairing of a pressure fighter and a neutralizer who prefers to counter.

Amil, who is the pressure fighter in this equation, embraces a bite-down style of technical brawling out of both stances.

Often shifting to and from southpaw, Amil will look to create trades where he can not only return kicks and punches, but also punctuate the overall exchange. And when Amil can corrall his opposition toward the inner-back octagon lines and the fence, "The Hurricane" earns his moniker by unloading with brutal punching combinations and clinch warfare alike.

Even though Amil has had better grappling and cardio accounts than what he showed in his last outing (where Amil's long struggle with stomach ulcers was apparently acting up), the 36-year-old will still need to respect the countering abilities of Rodriguez.

Akin to Rodriguez's stablemate, Sergio Pettis, "CeeRod" appears to have the patented Roufusport one-two returns hardwired into this striking psyche. Rodriguez also has the sneaky high kicks that you'd expect given the company that he keeps, but it's in the clinch where the 28-year-old's game comes to life.

An avid clinch fighter, Rodriguez wields everything from wicked elbows to unsuspecting knees, as I suspect that the latter will serve him well in this fight. That said, I'd argue that the quiet star of the show is Rodriguez's foot sweeps, which translate into his top game and takedown stats alike.

Rodriguez, who has solid scrambling skills in tow, also has a super slick front-headlock series that Amil will need to respect anytime these two tie up.

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the younger fighter, listing Rodriguez -188 and Amil +152 as of this writing.

Despite officially siding with Rodriguez to win a decision, "CeeRod" is not the type of fighter you typically want to lean heavily on as a favorite. Moreover, Amil, who apparently has addressed the stomach ulcer issues that have plagued previous performances, is the type of underdog you want to back given his nature to fight hard for your money.

And though I hate to further fuel 'woo-woo' narratives with this negative tidbit, but those who know their MMA history know that losing skids have traditionally come in tow when notable head coaches have had their times tragically cut short (e.g. Mark Homincik and other Team Tompkins fighters following Sean Thompkons passing, Kevin Lee and Miesha Tate after Robert Follis' passing, Adrian Yanez and others after Saul Soliz's passing, etc.).

As someone who had the honor to train under and interact with the majority of the names mentioned here, it would make me incredibly happy to see Rodriguez overcome these adversities and give a proper post-fight shoutout to the great coach Roufus. But from a betting perspective, I'm not exactly in a rush to have heavy exposure on either side of this fight.

I did put this fight going to a split decision in my round robin and suggest you consider that prop as a potential hedge and/or bonus for bettors on either side of this equation.

I also considered a stab at Amil's 3.5-point handicap prop before it further inflated, but I still believe it's a valid approach to playing this fight if you both have a house that offers it and you don't mind shelling out some chalk to get on it.

As for me, I found a plus-money angle in Rodriguez's total takedown market (Over 1.5 takedowns at -120) that can cash even if the former Roufusport product loses.

Part of the reason I'm siding with Rodriguez to win is that he traditionally does well against fighters who bring the fight to him. And though his reactive shots should be able to score on a fighter as aggressive as Amil (who has under-average takedown defense stats), it's the footsweeps I mentioned in the previous section that quietly score for Rodriguez with the statisticians.

Add in the fact that this fight takes place in the smaller octagon of the Apex – an environment that encourages action and grappling alike – and I suspect that newfound Xtreme Couture member in Rodriguez will be going for takedowns early and often, given the opportunities Amil will offer up to him.