Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny Odds
| Matthews Odds | -380 |
| Magny Odds | +300 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-145/+114) |
| Location | RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Perth odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Perth with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny prediction for Noche UFC on Saturday, September 13, with my betting preview and breakdown.
With 47 career octagon appearances between the two, Neil Magny and Jake Matthews are truly veterans of the sport. Magny has made a career out of finding a way to win despite often having underdog odds attached to his name. Oddsmakers have lined this matchup in a manner that may have made you do a double take at first glance, but when digging deeper, I believe Matthews is rightfully favored by a substantial margin.
Here's my Matthews vs. Magny pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Matthews | Magny | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-7 | 30-13 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:15 | 12:11 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 80" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/19/1994 | 8/03/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.44 | 3.45 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.63 | 2.47 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.51 | 2.15 |
| TD Acc | 42% | 39% |
| TD Def | 67% | 55% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Jake Matthews has clearly made improvements in recent fights and is fighting with more confidence.
His only loss over the last two and a half years came at the hands of one of the best prospects in the welterweight division – Michael Morales. Matthews went the full 15 minutes with Morales, winning the 3rd round on two judges’ scorecards by out-striking him 25-22 in the final frame.
Since that Morales fight, Matthews has continued to look even better, dispatching opponents he is simply better than at this stage of his career. He has always had an abundance of skills that has made him a well-rounded fighter, but the inconsistencies that plagued him early in his career seem to have been put behind him.
Neil Magny presents a unique challenge given his experience and reach advantage, but Matthews is well-equipped to deal with any type of fight he will find himself in. Magny may have a 7-inch reach advantage in this fight, but that is the same advantage Phil Rowe had over Matthews in a fight last year. Matthews easily out-struck the longer fighter in Rowe, doubling him up in total strikes landed 89 to 40, while also landing the more significant shots.
Matthews also displayed what makes him such a dangerous fighter by getting the fight to the mat on his only attempt to do so and banking nearly three minutes of control when he did so to secure the 3rd round on the scorecards.
If Magny chooses to pressure and clinch as we have seen him do in the past, Matthews has the ability to tie him up, land a trip or simply change levels and shoot for a takedown. If Magny chooses to stay at distance, Matthews possesses the more powerful strikes and is the more durable of the two men.
One concern I have with Matthews at times is his lack of urgency in pursuing his grappling edge over his opponent. He can dictate where this fight takes place and there is no certainty he chooses the path of least resistance in this fight – which would be landing a takedown and controlling Magny on the ground. Magny is highly vulnerable to be dominated on the mat, and Matthews has a very slick submission attack.
While I can only hope Matthews presses his edge in the grappling department, I do expect him to shift to it if the boxing exchanges are not going his way. However, Matthews is the better boxer of the two men as well, so he may be content winning minutes in that manner, similar to the gameplan he executed in the first two rounds in his victory over Phil Rowe.
I am not discounting Magny’s ability to play spoiler, but his recent wins often came by tiring out his opponent. Magny may have the cardio edge in this fight, but I do not expect Matthews to suddenly perform poorly in round three. The third round is a round he has consistently taken off his opponents during his recent run, even in losses.
Matthews vs. Magny Pick, Prediction
Magny has taken an immense amount of damage in his career.
And yes, he has really only been finished by some of the top names in the welterweight division, but at age 38, the durability is waning. Matthews can and will successfully submit Magny if his entire focus is exploiting the older fighter on the mat, but I also believe a finish can materialize for the streaking Matthews in other ways as well.
I’m happy to take plus money in this spot backing a fighter in his prime against the aging Magny.
John's Pick: Jake Matthews inside the distance +135 (Fanduel)
