UFC Vegas 75 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Armen Petrosyan vs. Christian Leroy Duncan: 2 Bets for the Minute-Winner (Saturday, June 17)

Armen Petrosyan vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Odds

Two middleweight prospects meet on Saturday night at the UFC Apex facility when British former basketball player Christian Leroy Duncan meets Armenian kickboxing champion Armen Petrosyan on the UFC Vegas 75 main card.

It's just the second trip to the UFC octagon for Duncan, whose debut match against Dusko Todorovic ended due to a freak injury to Todorovic.

Duncan will be looking to pick up a more definitive win this time around – against three-fight UFC veteran Petrosyan.

Tale of the Tape

We'll start with Petrosyan, the more experienced fighter for the promotion. Counting his fight at a Contender Series event – a knockout victory over a previously undefeated opponent – this is the fourth UFC bout for Petrosyan. He's officially 2-1 in the octagon, but he fought high-level competition from the jump.

Petrosyan made his debut against Gregory "Robocop" Rodrigues, picking up a split-decision victory, before losing on the judges' scorecards to Caio Borralho. Those two opponents are a combined 8-2 in the UFC, with one of those losses coming to Petrosyan.

What's more impressive is that both opponents are decorated Brazilian grapplers, and Petrosyan was able to survive six combined takedowns between the two fights.

The former kickboxer has looked more well-rounded in each of his appearances despite his poor takedown defense stat.

He's decided – correctly in my opinion – that being able to get back up is an easier path than defending takedowns in the first place. He was taken down thrice by A.J. Dobson in his last fight, but he surrendered only 49 total seconds of control time.

Petrosyan has been dominant while his bouts are on the feet, outstriking each of his opponents and landing more than double the significant strikes per minute as he absorbs.

He's a bit small for the division, which hurts his power, but his excellent speed and technique more than make up for it. While he's giving up considerable reach to Duncan, that's been the case for him in each of his UFC bouts, and it has yet to be an issue.

Where he lacks in arm span, he makes up for in leg reach, blasting opponents at range with kicks to all three levels. His leg kicks are perhaps his best attribute, though, and he's landed at least 26 in every UFC fight thus far.

They could play a major role here against Duncan. Duncan has finished six of his eight professional fights by knockout (counting the Todorovic injury), most of them with punches. While Duncan has solid kicks as well, his "A game" is loading up on heavy punches, which leaves him open to leg kicks as he's stepping in.

To his credit, Duncan uses a mixture of push and side kicks to take advantage of his extreme reach for the division, which makes it hard to even get into leg-kicking range. Still, it's telling that half of Todorovic's landed strikes prior to the injury were leg kicks.

He's an excellent athlete though, relying on hand speed and his aforementioned length to land strikes from odd angles and ranges. Outside of his "feeler" style kicks, everything he throws is with ill intention. He'll occasionally look a bit silly on a big swing and miss, but when he finds his mark, it's a major problem.

It's hard to find much tape of Duncan grappling, and his lone submission came via "punch a guy until he gives you his neck" rather than any slick ground skills. "British basketball player" is quite possibly the worst base for grappling, though, and I don't suspect he'll have the desire or ability to bring this one to the canvas.

Petrosyan vs. Duncan Pick

With this one likely to take place mostly on the feet, it ultimately comes down to Duncan's length and power vs. Petrosyan's superior technique and volume.

Petrosyan has fought almost exclusively fighters with longer reaches, so I'm less concerned about that factor this time around. It's much tougher for fighters who are accustomed to having a reach edge to make that adjustment than it is for a fighter like Petrosyan.

As for the power, I've been impressed by Petrosyan's durability so far. He's taken big shots – especially from Rodrigues – in the past, but he handled himself well in those instances. I'm not sure if it's a function of his chin or his ability to not eat shots head-on, but either way, the result is the same.

Therefore, Petrosyan should be the better minute-winner here, especially as the fight wears on. Duncan is used to being able to finish his opponents early, with just one decision in his career. I'll be mixing my bets here between Petrosyan's moneyline at +135 (good to +125) at BetMGM, as well as Petrosyan by decision at +260 (via FanDuel).

The Picks: Armen Petrosyan (+135 at BetMGM) | Petrosyan via decision (+260 at FanDuel)

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