Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell Odds
| Riley Odds | -250 |
| Aswell Odds | +205 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-166/+130) |
| Location | O2 Arena, London, England |
| Bout Time | 6:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC London odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC London with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell prediction for UFC London on Saturday, March 21, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
We normally don't see fighters with combined UFC records of 2-1 holding down a co-main event spot outside of the Apex, but that's a strong sign of what the UFC thinks of Liverpudlian prospect Luke Riley. A training partner of Paddy Pimblett at Next Generation MMA in Liverpool, Riley was impressive in his debut and looks to be on the fast track to the top of the division.
First, he has to get through Michael Aswell, who comes into the fight with a 1-1 UFC record and a loss on the Contender Series. There are no easy fights in the stacked featherweight division, but will the Riley showcase go as planned, or can Aswell spoil the party?
Here's my Riley vs. Aswell pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Riley | Aswell | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-0 | 11-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:30 | 10:34 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/30/1999 | 09/27/2000 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.55 | 9.56 |
| SS Accuracy | 60% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.27 | 7.79 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 42% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
It's tough to get a read on the true ability of Aswell, due to the extenuating circumstances in all of his UFC appearances. He came into the promotion with a 9-1 record, his only loss coming to fellow UFC fighter Yadier del Valle. In his Contender Series fight, he lost a reasonably close split decision to Bogdan Grad, out-striking Grad but giving up three takedowns along the way.
He got a UFC shot anyway as a short-notice replacement, in which he took on Bolaji Oki up a weight class on four days' notice. Aswell managed to take Round One of that three-round fight before fading, but it's hard to hold that against him given the size disparity and lack of preparation time. Then, he finally got in the win column in his last bout against Lucas Almeida. However, that bout was controversial, as pictures of Almeida's broken hand surfaced before the fight, and the Brazilian was clearly compromised during the fight.
Altogether, none of his fights in the promotion gave us a definitive result. However, watching them back, I was able to get a read on his style.
Aswell hasn't attempted a single takedown in any of his appearances, and comes from a strong boxing background. He tends to get a bit sloppy with his striking, overthrowing punches in an attempt to finish opponents quickly. That clearly worked well for him against regional competition, but it is a habit he'll need to unlearn to compete against the best fighters in the world. He seems fairly content to stay at boxing range, neither retreating too far nor pressing forward urgently.
That's going to be an interesting dynamic against Riley, who is excellent at space but can be shut down for extended stretches in close range. Both in his UFC debut and final Cage Warriors bout, Riley spent extended portions of the first round pinned against the fence or on his back, before getting a restart in the second round and finishing his opponents.
I was extremely impressed by his output, as he feints heavily, moves a ton, and puts out a ton of volume whenever he has the time and space to do so. He's also reasonably defensively sound when forced to grapple, and hit a nice Octopus guard-to-turtle transition to get back to his feet in his debut, which also came against Bogdan Grad.
Unlike his training partner and mentor, Pimblett, he doesn't seem to offer much in the way of submission threats on the ground. Of course, that's probably the correct strategy for all but the sport's best submission grapplers, as the majority of the time, just getting back to your feet is more valuable than hunting submissions that may not come. None of that is particularly relevant in this matchup, though, as I don't see Aswell suddenly turning into a grappler.
On the feet, Riley puts out a ton of feints, with the intention of drawing out big swings from his opponents that he can capitalize on with counter strikes. Given Aswell's propensity to get a bit loose with his punches, those opportunities will likely be there for him.
Riley is a strong kicker, but has the discipline to keep his feet on the ground when fighting grapplers. If Aswell is unwilling or unable to pose a takedown threat, I expect Riley will pour on the leg kicks as the fight goes on, potentially wearing Aswell down for the later rounds. Weakening his opponents' front leg also had the added impact of limiting their movement, which Riley exploits with his exceptional footwork in order to create better striking angles.
Betting Insight
Neither man has ever been finished in their pro career — Scousers don't get knocked out, after all — which probably explains why this fight is favored to go the distance.
However, Riley has the firepower to change that, especially later into the fight if he's allowed to get into a flow state at range without having to worry about takedowns and grappling. His counter striking ability, leg kicks, and high output should all wear down Aswell, leading to a finish in the second half or so of this fight.
With his knockout prop (+240 at FanDuel) not far off is stoppage odds of +200, I'll be making a bet on Riley to get the finish at +200 for half of a unit. Additionally, I'm throwing in 0.1 unit sprinkles on his Round 2 (+800) and Round 3 (+1300) odds as well.
Billy's Pick: Riley by Finish (+200) | Round 2 (+800), Round 3 (+1300) (All FanDuel)
