King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens Odds
| Green Odds | -355 |
| Stephens Odds | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-160/+124) |
| Location | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 328 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 328 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens prediction for UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC 328’s main card will feature two established lightweights pushing 40 years of age in King Green and Jeremy Stephens. Their presence this high on the card is due to the simple fact each brings a level of entertainment value, and name recognition to even most casual of UFC fans. Green has enjoyed a mini-resurgence over the past six months, but I am not so sure he deserves his current substantial favorite price tag.
Here's my Green vs. Stephens pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Green | Stephens | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 34-17-1 | 29-22 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:57 | 11:33 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/9/1986 | 5/25/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.38 | 3.15 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.58 | 3.14 |
| SS Defense | 62% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.31 | 1.11 |
| TD Acc | 42% | 38% |
| TD Def | 72% | 62% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.4 |
King Green is a very unique UFC fighter, and just when it was seemingly the end of the road for his run in the organization, he reminded everyone he has plenty left in the gas tank with two consecutive victories over those much younger than him. His super slick boxing prowess is an extremely difficult puzzle for his opponents to figure out, and his experience as a professional continues to provide him with the knowledge needed to best many in his weight class outside of the absolute elite.
The interesting part about this specific matchup with Stephens is that neither man will enjoy the experience edge here at this point in their careers. Stephens debuted in the UFC in 2007, and while he has not picked up a UFC win in more than eight years, he can still make life difficult for just about anybody who is willing to brawl with him. That is the type of fight he'll get on Saturday night as Green will undoubtedly oblige him.
Stephens has been competing in the Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship (BKFC), which is more suited to his style, and he has been relatively impressive without having to worry about grappling. Most recently, he more than held his own against a much bigger version of himself in former UFC welterweight Mike Perry. Prior to that, Stephens scored TKO wins over Eddie Alvarez and Jimmie Rivera.
He has looked like the Stephens we have grown accustomed to seeing, and the same fighter that gave Mason Jones a battle almost exactly one year ago when he returned to the UFC for what we thought was a one-time send-off fight.
Green is a fighter who likes to use feints to keep his opponent off balance, but Stephens will not be afraid to engage and make this a firefight. He has always been willing to take your best shot if he can deliver his own power. Stephens has been extremely durable, all things considered, throughout his career, and Green is not someone who usually wins with power. Make no mistake, the longer this fight gets extended, the more likely it is that Green was successful in executing his gameplan and is on his way to winning a decision.
However, Green by decision is priced at +125, and really is the only angle to play if you like the favorite in this matchup. I wouldn’t be shocked to see both men take things a little slower in the early going, as Stephens knows he needs to pace himself more equitably than he did in his loss against Mason Jones, while Green needs to respect the power of Stephens.
Green vs. Stephens Pick, Prediction
Stephens will have to walk a fine line between pressuring just enough and not allowing Green to get into a rhythm. For this reason, I am not going to make a large wager on the Stephens moneyline, even though I believe he is the value side in a pretty volatile spot.
Just as I don’t expect Green to win this fight by knockout, I also don’t believe Stephens is the type of fighter to grind out a decision very often at this point. Green averages twice as many significant strikes per minute, can fight behind his jab more consistently and manages distance more effectively.
Which leaves Stephens by KO/TKO at +600 being the most underpriced angle to attack in this particular matchup. Green’s durability has failed him on several occasions in recent years, and while he has the overall striking advantage in my estimation, Stephens has the one-punch knockout power that can catch him and shut the lights out. I will gladly take my chances by risking less than one unit, with the potential to win more than 3 units of profit if I am correct.
John's Pick: Stephens moneyline +340 (o.5u) | Stephens by KO/TKO +600 (0.25u) Both via DraftKings
