Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Odds
| Volkov Odds | -142 |
| Cortes-Acosta Odds | +120 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-260/+195) |
| Location | Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 328 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 328 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta prediction for UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
In an ironic twist, one of the few fights favored to go the distance at UFC 328 is the lone heavyweight bout between Alexander Volkov and Walso "Salsa Boy" Cortes-Acosta. The top-five heavyweights are both in the title picture, though there odds of a championship fight are hung up on the glacial pace at which the division moves. This is the stiffest test of Cortes-Acosta's career, while Volkov has consistently faced top-ten opposition for a number of years. Can he turn back the surging would-be contender, or does "Drago" hold court and stay in title contention?
Here's my Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Volkov | Cortes-Acosta | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 36-11 | 17-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:03 | 10:23 |
| Height | 6'7" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 250 lbs. | 260 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/24/1988 | 10/3/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.78 | 5.54 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.86 | 3.38 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| TD Acc | 66% | 57% |
| TD Def | 68% | 72% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.1 |
The recent results have been a mixed bag for Alexander Volkov. He's 1-1 across his last two fights, and probably deserves to be 1-1 — though with the results flipped. He lost a close, and in my view, poorly judged split decision to Ciryl Gane in December of 2024 that likely would've earned him the title shot that went to Gane. After that, he was dominated in the grappling by Jailton Almeida, who refused to strike, with the judges taking a moral stance on Almeida's pacifism and handing Volkov the win.
While I wouldn't exactly say Almeida "deserved" that win either, it wasn't the best sign for Volkov. It's also not super relevant to the fight he has this time around against Acosta, who, save his fight with Taekwondo stylist Robelis Despaigne, has done his level best to keep his UFC bouts standing.
Acosta is only three years younger than Volkov on the calendar, but with roughly one-third the professional fight experience, and is the faster and more athletic man. He's still relatively raw, though, having turned pro in 2018 after time in the Reds minor league system as a pitcher and then initially jumping in to boxing.
Until recently, I viewed Cortes-Acosta as a high-volume point fighter who was content to use his length and speed edge to stay safe while landing low-impact strikes on his opponents. Seven of his first nine UFC fights went to the judges. Since then, he's ripped off three straight knockout wins.
Volkov is a massive (6'7" with an 80" reach) Russian who doesn't exactly swing for the fences, but allows his size and leverage to generate power on the feet. He's a very capable, if not proactive, grappler as well, and has typically used that to his advantage when fighting strikers.
That could turn this into one of many "striker vs. grappler" fights on the card. We haven't seen the Salsa Boy lose fights due to his grappling defense very often, but he's been mostly preferentially matched up with strikers as the UFC tried to push him to Contender Status.
Volkov is pretty easily the stiffest grappling test he's faced in quite some time (if not in the entirety of his career), and Volkov would be wise to at least find out if Acosta can hang with him on the ground.
Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta Pick, Prediction
My initial read on this fight was that the "heavyweight overs" meme has gone too far, with the under 2.5 rounds in this fight lined at nearly +200. Both men have finished at least half of their wins, and the somewhat-binary nature of this fight probably makes a finish more likely than divisional averages (which also favor the under) suggest.
While I'm still betting that, the line movement towards Cortes-Acosta also has me willing to make a bet on Volkov. Depending on your view of his split decisions, there's an argument that Volkov should be on a seven-fight win streak since losing to Tom Aspinall, and at worst, was highly competitive with the division's number-one contender.
Cortes-Acosta's three stoppage wins are somewhat less impressive when you consider how he got there. Derrick Lewis basically gave up mid fight, and his knockout over Ante Delija came after the fight was restarted following an initial ruling of a TKO win for Delija that was overturned due to an eye poke.
Give me Volkov at -142 via DraftKings, and the Under 2.5 rounds at +195, with a strong probability of breaking even on at least one of those bets winning.
Billy's Picks: Volkov -142 (.71 units) | Under 2.5 Rounds +195 (.5 units) both DraftKings
