Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira Odds
| Ankalaev Odds | -285 |
| Pereira Odds | +230 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-130/+100) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 12:30 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 320 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 320 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira prediction for UFC 320 on Saturday, October 4, with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 14-fight card, featuring a Light Heavyweight title bout and rematch between current champion Magomed Ankalaev and former champion Alex "Poatan" Pereira.
Ankalaev took the belt off of Pereira in March at UFC 313, winning a unanimous decision (48-47 x2, 49-46) at slight underdog odds, and moving to 12-1-1 (1 NC) in the promotion.
Pereira has a 9-2 UFC record – including a 5-1 record at Light Heavyweight – and a 5-2 record in title bouts.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 320 Main Event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these Light Heavyweights. They should make their cage walks at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET (9:30 p.m. PT) on Sunday morning.
Here are my Ankalaev vs. Pereira pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Ankalaev | Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-1-1 | 12-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:31 | 11:57 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/02/1992 | 7/07/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.66 | 5.00 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 62% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.46 | 3.50 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.8 | 0.11 |
| TD Acc | 22% | 50% |
| TD Def | 87% | 78% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.2 |
I previewed this matchup for UFC 313 in March and ultimately recommended Ankalaev as a moneyline wager at -125 and as a potential live bet anytime after the opening round.
I noted Pereira's size advantage (1" taller, 4" reach advantage) and superior striking prowess, and discussed the likelihood that he could slow Ankalaev's movement with low kicks.
I also discussed Ankalaev's grappling edge and his potential to dominate the fight on the mat or generate extensive control time against the fence.
While Pereira denied all 12 takedown attempts in the first fight, Anklaev out-landed him at distance (75-69 overall) and tripled him up on head strikes (36-11), which weighed heavily with the judges.
Moreover, Anakalaev generated nearly six minutes of control time against the fence, while outstriking Pereira 19-7 in the clinch, helping to drain the older fighter's stamina in the process.
I recommended the live bet, noting potential concerns around Pereira's gas tank in an extended matchup, as well as potential durability concerns. Even aside from his knockout loss to Israel Adesanya, Pereira has been wobbled badly in several fights – including his win over Khalil Rountree. At the same time, he carries more power in his hands than Ankalev; the champion has the better chin.
It's worth noting that Pereira was apparently fighting through a hand injury in the first matchup, which could explain his lack of aggression.
Still, I view the stylistic dynamics for the rematch similarly to the first fight. Pereira is the more technical striker, but Ankalev has the grappling edge, is the quicker and more durable athlete, and has better cardio too.
I'd expect to see a more aggressive version of Poatan than we saw in the first fight — especially if there is any truth to the rumor surrounding his injured hand. An increased tempo, relative to the tedious initial matchup, could force a finish on either side of the rematch.
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Pick, Prediction
For the first fight in March, I projected Magomed Ankalaev as a 57% favorite (-133 implied odds) and set the ends inside the distance prop at roughly -164, compared to closing odds of +110 and -200, respectively.
I projected Ankalaev as a -337 favorite (77.1% implied) for Saturday's rematch, and set the ends inside the distance prop at -124, compared to listed odds of -250 and -140, respectively.
Perhaps most interestingly, even though the overall implied odds for a finish have decreased for the rematch, Ankalev's implied finish chances have actually increased; his KO prop was +360 (21.7% implied), and inside the distance prop +225 (30.8% implied) for the first fight, but are lined at +290 (26.5% implied) and +195 (33.9% implied), respectively, for the rematch.
Despite the relatively close optics of the first fight, I would consider using Anaklaev as a parlay piece to -300 (75% implied), or would play his inside the distance odds to +144 (41.1% implied) compared to a projected line of +132 (43.1% implied), rather than attempting to thread the needle on either his KO/TKO prop (projected +185, listed +290) or submission prop (projected +1197, listed +1500).
Lastly, I would reiterate the potential for a live bet on Ankalaev at a better price anytime after Round 1, particularly if he hasn't grappled to that point in the fight.
Sean's Pick: Magomed Ankalaev Wins Inside the Distance (+195 at FanDuel)
