Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola Odds
| Jones Odds | -125 |
| Sola Odds | +105 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-188/+145) |
| Location | O2 Arena, London, England |
| Bout Time | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC London odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC London with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola prediction for UFC London on Saturday, March 21, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
We've got a classic UK vs. France matchup at UFC London, with former Cage Warriors two-division champion Mason Jones taking on former Ares FC lightweight title holder Axel Sola in the featured prelim. The last time we saw these two fighters was in consecutive fights last September in Sola's native France, but this time they're crossing the Channel to share the cage in London. Will Sola's undefeated record survive, or will the veteran Jones hold it down for the home crowd? We'll find out on Saturday afternoon.
Here's my Jones vs. Sola pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Jones | Sola | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-2 | 11-0-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:35 | 12:02 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 4/26/1995 | 09/17/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.71 | 3.74 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.47 | 2.74 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 75% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.17 | 1.25 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 25% |
| TD Def | 81% | N/A |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0 |
This is the second UFC stint for Mason Jones, who voluntarily left the promotion after going 1-2-1, feeling he needed a bit more seasoning back home before stepping up to the big leagues. The then-undefeated prospect had a lot of hype around him, since he entered the promotion as the reigning Cage Warriors champion at both 155 and 170 pounds and had finished both title fights in the first round.
The return to Cage Warriors proved to be a good idea for Jones, who picked up four wins there before returning to the UFC and adding two more victories to the ledger. The first of those came against an aged Jeremy Stephens, but the next was an impressive win against Bolaji Oki.
Jones put both his skill and toughness on display in that fight, getting dropped badly in the opening minute or so before rallying back, ending the first round on top, and finishing Oki in the second. "The Welsh Dragon" has borderline-elite top control and transitions seamlessly between submission threats and ground-and-pound, while also consistently looking to advance position.
A former Judoka, Jones isn't great at shooting for takedowns from range (though he can when need be), but is a massive problem from the clinch, with a wide range of throws and foot sweeps. It's the getting there that's the problem.
On the feet, it would be fair to describe Jones as "plodding." He marches forward like the Terminator, throwing heavy, yet somewhat slow, strikes while trying to back his opponent into the cage and/or force a clinch. His striking defense is similarly slow, making him somewhat hittable on the feet.
Fortunately, he's extremely tough and has never been finished in his career. He was able to recover from a knockdown against Oki that easily would've finished most men, and quickly secured a takedown to finish the round in top position. Outside of his face looking a bit flatter and more crooked every time we see him, the 31-year-old appears no worse for wear despite eating plenty of big shots. He lands with power of his own from time to time, but faster and more technical strikers are more than capable of winning minutes and rounds from him on the feet.
Sola certainly fits that description, with a fun Karate-style striking game. He's a bit of a hybrid between traditional martial arts and modern striking, with good hand position and head movement, but a somewhat bladed stance and a focus on speed and precision over power.
He made his UFC debut against Rhys McKee, and dropped "Skeletor" with a body shot before finishing him with punches on the ground. It was probably an early stoppage, as McKee was working back to his feet before the referee stepped in.
Overall, Sola doesn't land with a ton of power — or McKee was uncharacteristically durable that night — as he snaps his punches and kicks in a point-fighting style rather than driving through them. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as it saves energy and keeps him in a solid defensive posture regardless of whether his strikes land. He'll almost certainly out-land Jones from a volume perspective as long as this stays on the feet.
Like many Karate fighters, he also does his best work going backwards, which is where this fight will get interesting. We're in the larger cage for this fight, so he'll have plenty of room to work, but if Jones can cut off the cage and work Sola back to the fence, it's going to be bad news for the Frenchman. I didn't see much of Sola's grappling on tape, but his long, skinny frame and the limited time he spent on the mat with McKee has me much more confident in Jones on the ground.
Betting Insight
The other important style dynamic here is that Sola fighting backwards while Jones marches forward will almost certainly endear Jones to the judges. Especially with a heavily partisan crowd reacting to positive moments from Jones.
Since I don't think Sola has the power to finish Jones — or that such a thing is even possible — that has me siding with the slight favorite here. I expect Jones will be able to close the distance often enough to get this fight to the ground, but even if he doesn't, his forward pressure and bigger shots should swing close rounds his way. That's enough for me to take the moneyline on the close favorite, especially with the line coming in just a bit throughout the week.
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Billy's Pick: Mason Jones -120 (Caesars)
