Check out the Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber prediction for UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Michael Johnson is now 30 fights into his UFC career. Having fought some of the best the lightweight division has ever seen, he has enjoyed a recent career resurgence, winning four of his last six octagon appearances. His opponent, Daniel Zellhuber, is 13 years younger than him and will enjoy a size advantage in terms of both height and reach. Johnson’s recent form has created a very good betting opportunity here by simply backing the ascending Zellhuber inside the distance.
Here's my Johnson vs. Zellhuber pick and prediction.
Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber Odds
| Johnson Odds | +455 |
| Zellhuber Odds | -625 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-215/+165) |
| Location | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 318 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 318 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Johnson | Zellhuber | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-19 | 15-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:30 | 13:54 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 77" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Switch |
| Date of birth | 6/04/1986 | 7/07/1999 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.23 | 6.26 |
| SS Accuracy | 39% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.80 | 6.02 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.61 | 0.18 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 25% |
| TD Def | 81% | 94% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.2 |
While Michael Johnson sits at 15-15 over the course of his time in the UFC, it is hard not to remember his career favorably when considering the combination of entertaining fights he has been involved in and the notable wins he has racked up.
Johnson is nearing 40 years of age, yet still possesses excellent head movement, power in his strikes and lighting fast hand speed.
However positive an outlook you have on Johnson, he is always one strike away from being put away. The damage he has sustained has taken its toll, but it seems like oddsmakers may have forgotten just how often we have seen his resiliency fail him. Johnson sits as high as a +450 underdog, and five of his last eight losses have come inside the distance.
The three losses by decision he sustained were at the hands of Clay Guida, Jamie Mullarkey, and Stevie Ray – not exactly a short list of proficient finishers.
Even in a loss against Esteban Ribovics, Daniel Zellhuber’s stock still feels like it is still rising. Riding two consecutive fight of the night awards, Zellhuber’s toughness cannot be questioned. Johnson may be the more technical pure boxer, but the varied attack of Zellhuber and his fearless nature will allow him to step into the fire more often and more effectively.
Zellhuber’s kicking attack from the outside at a range few lightweights can fight at will cause Johnson to respond by entering the pocket, as that is the only way he will be able to land his own offense in return.
This will lead to Johnson entering the danger zone, thus opening himself up to counters or simply making a mistake that his durability cannot withstand.
Michael Johnson has played spoiler before in his career and I won't pretend this isn't a test for the rising Zellhuber. However, it's hard to imagine the younger, bigger, more durable fighter with a chip on his shoulder following a closely contested loss won't come in with the focus he needs to beat Johnson definitively given the stage these two are at in their careers.
Johnson vs. Zellhuber Pick, Prediction
Johnson does not have the ability to sustain an aggressive pace without finding himself in a brawl he desperately needs to avoid.
